New Emerson College Polling/The Hill swing state surveys find a tight race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump. Harris has a slight edge over Trump in Michigan (50% to 47%), Georgia (49% to 48%), and Nevada (49% to 48%). The candidates are tied in Pennsylvania (48% to 48%). In Wisconsin and North Carolina, Trump has a one-point edge over Harris (49% to 48%), and Trump leads by three in Arizona (50% to 47%).
“The race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump continues to be tight, within each state’s margin of error,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.
“Harris leads Trump among independents in each state, with the exception of Nevada, where Trump leads 50% to 44%. There is also a stark gender divide, similar to that of 2020. In six of the seven swing states, Harris leads Trump among women, however, in Arizona, Trump has a two-point edge on Harris among women voters, a group that broke for Biden by about three points in 2020.”
The sample size for Arizona is n=720 likely voters, with a credibility interval of +/-3.6%. The sample size for Georgia and Michigan is n=800 per state, with a credibility interval for each state of +/-3.4%. The sample size in Pennsylvania is n=950, with a credibility interval of +/-3.1%. The sample size for Nevada is n=1,168, with a credibility interval of +/-2.8%. The sample size for North Carolina is n=775, with a credibility interval of +-3.5%. The sample size for Wisconsin is n=850, with a credibility interval of +/-3.3%. Data was weighted by statewide voter parameters, including gender, age, race/ethnicity, education (US Census), and voter registration (state secretary of state) and turnout data (exit polling).
The survey was administered by contacting respondents’ cell phones via MMS-to-web and landlines via Interactive Voice Response with respondents provided by Aristotle, along with an online panel provided by CINT. The survey was offered in English. Data was collected between August 25-28, 2024. The survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling and sponsored by Nexstar Media.
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2024 Election
