The online prediction market Kalshi is increasingly leaning into political and conversational questions of the day, including the latest executive actions by President Trump since he returned to the Oval Office.
“Will Brexit happen? Will Donald Trump win the election? Will it rain tomorrow, and who’s going to win the Oscars — those are things that people can relate to,” Kalshi founder and CEO Tarek Mansour said on NewsNation’s “The Hill” Thursday evening.
“We want to build a financial market that is for everyone, not for a select, elite few,” he told host Blake Burman.
One question posed by Kalshi this week was about Greenland, a Danish territory that Trump has suggested could join the United States. As of Friday afternoon, nearly 35 percent of participants predicted the U.S. will acquire at least some part of the Arctic island.
“We saw billions traded on the election,” Mansour said. “Since then, the exchange has been scaling and growing at an astronomical pace.”
He predicted that it could become a “trillion-dollar market.”
What is a prediction market?
On its website, Kalshi said it’s the first regulated exchange where people “can buy and sell contracts on the outcome of events,” with contract prices reflected in the view of traders.
While the New York Stock Exchange is a traditional exchange where people can buy and sell shares in companies, Kalshi says its market is based on predictions, such as, “Will interest rates rise in the next quarter?”
The market has drawn scrutiny in New Jersey.
This week, regulators ordered Kalshi and Robinhood to stop offering sports-related prediction markets to Garden State residents.
Cease-and-desist letters from the regulators say the companies are offering unauthorized sports wagering services in New Jersey.
Donald Trump Jr., the president’s eldest son, is a strategic adviser for the exchange.
