ORLANDO, Fla. – The Gulf Coast is bracing for a potential tropical storm as Invest 93L shows increasing signs of developing into Dexter, with landfall possible as early as this week, the FOX Forecast Center warns.
Torrential rain and relentless downpours from Invest 93L are already soaking parts of Florida, as dark storm clouds enveloped Orlando this Tuesday morning.
The National Hurricane Center is highlighting a large area to watch near Florida and along the northern Gulf Coast. An invest is a designation used by the NHC to indicate an area that is under increased scrutiny for the possibility of tropical development.
BRYAN NORCROSS: WATCHING FOR FLORIDA FLOODING, THEN CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN GULF
Odds of development are medium over the next two days, with the best chance once it gets into the northeastern Gulf of America. Regardless of tropical development, plenty of rain is on the way to Florida. The system will then move toward the west and likely move into Louisiana toward the end of the week.
The FOX Forecast Center said the system is starting non-tropical but has already tapped into deep tropical moisture, which will drag over the Florida Peninsula. Widespread areas are forecast to receive 3-5 inches of rainfall, with some locations expected to receive 7 inches or more. Rain totals could climb quickly, especially across central and South Florida, where multiple inches of rain are possible.
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Storms will be slow-moving, capable of producing 1-3 inches of rain per hour, which may lead to pockets of flash flooding. The Weather Prediction Center has highlighted central Florida for a Level 2 out of 4 threat for flash flooding into Tuesday.
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Watching the Gulf
On Wednesday, the circulation of Invest 93L will enter the Gulf. The NHC is giving it a chance of developing into at least a tropical depression as it tracks in the general direction of Louisiana. The odds are currently in the medium category, but the forecast remains uncertain, the FOX Forecast Center said.
If the disturbance takes a more southerly track across the eastern Gulf, it’ll avoid the strongest wind shear and spend more time over the very warm waters. This scenario would give it the best chance to develop into a tropical depression or storm. A northerly track will involve land interaction and stronger wind shear and a weaker system.
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As always, forecasts for poorly organized – or just developing systems – carry more uncertainty than normal and are subject to change. The consensus of the various computer forecasts, including the latest AI models, is that the system will be weak but broad and contain lots of moisture.
Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate the storm on Tuesday to help provide valuable information on its structure to help with the forecast.
By Thursday or Friday, the center of the disturbance, if there is a center to track, should be near the north-central Gulf Coast. It will still be carrying a mass of tropical moisture with it, so a long section of the coast and some inland sections will be impacted by heavy rain late in the week and into the weekend, if things play out as expected, the FOX Forecast Center said.
There is no good consensus on how quickly the system will move past the Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana coastal sections this weekend.
