TAMPA, Fla. – A large area of disturbed weather off the Southeast coast will move west over Florida and bring periods of heavy rain and a flash flood threat to the Sunshine State through Tuesday. This system is infused with lots of tropical moisture and has the potential to become a tropical depression, as it tracks into the Gulf later this week.
The area of storms being monitored was designated Invest 93L by the National Hurricane Center on Monday. An invest is a designation used by the NHC to indicate an area that is under increased scrutiny for the possibility of tropical development.
According to the FOX Forecast Center, the tropical moisture will enhance the intensity of the slow-moving storms over Florida. This means they could be capable of producing 1–3 inches of rain per hour.
BRYAN NORCROSS: WATCHING FOR FLORIDA FLOODING, THEN CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN GULF
FOX Weather’s Robert Ray reports from Orlando, Florida, as the Sunshine State gets pounded by heavy rain by tropical disturbance Invest 93L.
Thunderstorms slammed Palm Coast and other parts of Florida’s East Coast on Sunday ahead of more rain this week.
At least 2-3 inches of rain are expected to fall all along Florida’s Gulf Coast and even many inland areas through Thursday. Some areas could see localized rainfall accumulations of 3-5 inches.
In addition, NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has issued a Level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms covering the entire state Monday. The risk highlights the potential for damaging wind gusts associated with these storms.
Heavy rain is also expected along the Gulf Coast from Alabama to Louisiana, including New Orleans, through the week.
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The flash flood threat will wane in Florida as the week progresses.
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Potential tropical development in Gulf this week
Several Hurricane Hunter flights are set to take off Tuesday, which will fly into Invest 93L and gather data about the disturbance.
While conditions in the Atlantic basin are hostile to tropical development, conditions in the Gulf, including warm water temperatures, could be conducive for the formation of at least a tropical depression sometime this week.
Forecast models don’t currently point to the formation of a strong tropical system, but a few individual models hint at the possibility of development in the Gulf.
Whether that happens will depend on key factors like the strength of hostile winds and how long the system lingers over warm water as opposed to forming close to land where it would be weaker.
Heavy rain in the Gulf as seen from Naples, Florida.
“The opportunity to develop into something more organized beyond a depression is going to be a little more challenging,” said FOX Weather Meteorologist Marissa Torres.
The National Hurricane Center is giving Invest 93L a medium chance of developing into a tropical depression over the next two days and a slightly higher chance of development over the next week.
Eventually, the system will move into the northern Gulf Coast and likely be near Louisiana or Mississippi sometime Wednesday or Thursday.
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Regardless of development, this system could still bring heavy rain to coastal Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana and even some inland parts of those states.
“There is not a good consensus on how quickly the system will move past the Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana coastal sections this weekend,” said FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross.
