It was an unfamiliar finish to the 2024 season for third baseman Alex Bregman — and an unexpectedly early entrance into free agency.
When the Houston Astros crashed out of the American League playoffs at the hands of the upstart Detroit Tigers led by their former skipper, A.J. Hinch, it was the earliest a season had ended for Bregman since his rookie year in 2016. Game 7 of the 2020 ALCS — Oct. 17 — had been the earliest on the calendar Bregman’s Astros had been eliminated in any of the previous seven seasons. Oct. 2 has traditionally marked the approximate beginning of Houston’s annual deep playoff runs, rather than the abrupt end of one. But when the Tigers secured the final out on that Wednesday afternoon in the early days of baseball’s most unpredictable month, Bregman’s uncertain future was thrust to the forefront, with the possibility that the painful early exit from the postseason also marked his final game as an Astro.
It’s possible that Bregman’s Houston tenure will continue as there are several compelling reasons to believe that will ultimately be the case. But Bregman will first hit the open market with the opportunity to start a new chapter elsewhere and bring along with him a nearly unrivaled track record of individual and collective success that would strengthen any roster and any clubhouse.
Since the earliest days of his development growing up in New Mexico, all Bregman has done is win. He won multiple gold medals as a high schooler playing for USA Baseball’s 16U and 18U teams. He reached the College World Series in two out of his three seasons at LSU. Drafted with the second overall pick in 2015, Bregman’s professional career has directly coincided with Houston’s run atop the American League. Though the 84-win Astros missed a playoff spot in Bregman’s rookie year, Houston has qualified for every postseason since, including seven straight trips to the American League Championship Series from 2017-23.
Only Derek Jeter played more postseason games through his age-30 season (110) than the 99 October contests Bregman has already participated in. Bregman’s 99 career playoff games already are tied with Tino Martinez for the eighth-most in MLB history, and he ranks in the top-10 on the all-time postseason leaderboards in runs (63), RBI (54), home runs (19) and total bases (164) — with his 30s still in front of him.
Bregman’s wealth of postseason experience, renowned work ethic and reputation as a clubhouse leader are some of the headlining features of his case as one of this winter’s premier free agents. At the same time, October track record and off-field qualities are only a portion of the equation when teams are evaluating whether to commit long-term to a free agent. It’s every bit as crucial to understand what a player has to offer over the course of 162 games before even thinking about their added-value come playoff time.
Bregman’s glove stood out, but one offensive metric fell off that could raise yellow flags
Bregman’s regular-season résumé is similarly stellar, although it can be broken into two distinct sections. In his early 20s, Bregman appeared on track to be a full-fledged superstar. His fifth-place finish in AL MVP voting in 2018 somehow undersold how good he was as Bregman’s 7.9 fWAR ranked third in MLB behind only Mookie Betts and Mike Trout. In 2019 — a season in which slugging soared across the league to heights unseen since the late ’90s, likely due to a livelier ball — Bregman’s production exploded even further. He clubbed a career-high 41 home runs, drove in 112 runs and drew an MLB-best 119 walks, ultimately just losing out to Trout for the AL MVP Award. With that monster campaign during his age-25 season, the sky seemed to be the limit for Bregman.
Since then, and since the offensive environment league-wide has returned to a more modest state, Bregman’s bat has ranged from good to great, rather than MVP-caliber. Still, combined with an excellent glove at third base, Bregman has consistently rated as one of the best at his position, albeit a notch below the inner-circle of elite players atop the league.
Bregman’s identity as a hitter is rooted in his exceptional ability to make contact, with strikeout rates that annually rank among the league’s lowest. Combined with a tremendously discerning eye leading to routinely high walk totals, Bregman has long been an OBP maven. Though his average and maximum exit velocities pale in comparison to most traditional sluggers, Bregman has consistently produced a favorable distribution of batted balls that enable a boatload of extra-base hits despite his modest raw power. While he likely won’t ever replicate the eye-popping totals of 2018-19, he remains a safe annual bet for 30-ish doubles and 25-ish homers, perhaps depending on his next home ballpark.
That trend continued in 2024, with one notable caveat: Bregman’s walk-rate plummeted to a shocking degree, dropping to a 6.9% clip that was nearly half the 13.8% rate he had posted over the previous six seasons. Though he continued to make a ton of contact, Bregman was far more aggressive in 2024, running his highest overall swing and chase rates since 2017, and his OBP paid the price.
Bregman also suffered through the coldest start of his career in his platform year. His .577 OPS in March/April was his worst mark in any individual month of his career, and he was one of several Astros hitters scuffling amid the team’s stunningly poor first six weeks of the season. Eventually, the ‘Stros found their stride, and so did Bregman. Though his OPS was still a measly .589 as late as May 27, Bregman warmed up in the summer months and finished notably strong, hitting .290/.337/.581 with 12 HRs over the final 38 games of the year.
Though his frigid start and sharp decline in free passes kept his overall offensive output below his career norms, Bregman’s all-around value was still buoyed by a spectacular year as a defender at third base, culminating in his first Gold Glove Award. The honor may have partially been a product of lesser competition in his league — Matt Chapman plays in the National League now — but it still reflected a new apex for Bregman’s glove work, with him posting career-bests in Statcast’s Outs Above Average and Fielding Run Value metrics.
That Bregman achieved a new defensive peak at the hot corner in 2024 made it all the more curious that one of the first pieces of information that surfaced regarding his free agency was a willingness to move to second base if the situation called for it, according to his agent, Scott Boras. Such added versatility could theoretically open him up to be considered by more teams, ones whose third base situations are already settled. Bregman also exclusively played shortstop in college and got some run at second base earlier in his career, so it’s plausible that Bregman is capable of moving back to the middle infield. And though it hasn’t yet hindered his ability to be an impact defender at third base, Bregman’s arm strength has rated as well below average, according to Statcast, hinting that his overall defensive profile may age better on the right side of the infield.
Boras also revealed that Bregman recently underwent a procedure on his throwing arm to remove bone chips from his elbow, so that’s another element teams will need to consider when evaluating his free agency, though he is fully expecting to be recovered in time for spring training.
Perhaps a position switch will indeed be in order, but for now, let’s consider Bregman for what we know he already is — a Gold Glove third baseman — and contemplate potential fits accordingly.
Teams that feel like his hottest pursuers: Astros, Yankees, Tigers and Mets
The Astros remain firmly in the mix to sign Bregman as a free agent, with general manager Dana Brown signaling that Bregman was the team’s “biggest priority” and Jose Altuve’s adamant declarations that Bregman remain his infield mate. It’s quite possible that Houston is deciding between two paths regarding its next high-dollar commitments: retain Bregman this winter, or let him walk and instead prepare to pursue a long-term pact with Kyle Tucker, either via extension or a massive free-agent deal when the star outfielder reaches the open market a year from now. Perhaps team owner Jim Crane will push the budget to ensure both homegrown stars remain in Houston long-term, but that’s a pricey proposition. The organizational decision to let Carlos Correa leave in free agency was certainly a big one, but Jeremy Pena was ready as the heir apparent then. Such in-house replacements do not exist for the likes of Bregman or Tucker, heightening the pressure on Crane and Co. to secure one or both of them long-term to ensure a championship-quality position player core remains in place.
The Astros are also one of the few contenders with an obvious hole at third base. Perhaps the Yankees could get involved if they miss out on Juan Soto, as they could slide Jazz Chisholm Jr. back to his more-natural second base. Maybe the Mets would pursue Bregman if Pete Alonso departs and rising star Mark Vientos moves to first base. Seattle is actively seeking upgrades at both second and third base this winter in search of an improved offense to support its elite pitching staff, but the Mariners haven’t spent big on a free-agent hitter in years, a trend that doesn’t appear likely to change. Perhaps Toronto would invest heavily in Bregman as a core piece on the left side of the infield in anticipation of losing Bo Bichette to free agency next winter.
Might a reunion with Hinch in Detroit make sense? The Tigers have several infielders in need of playing time, but adding Bregman would be an exciting way to build off the team’s breakout 2024 campaign, and he would bring a much-needed veteran presence in the middle of an otherwise ultra-young lineup. The same could be said about an ascendant Nationals team, which has yet to find success the way Detroit has but features a talented core on the upswing — and a wide-open hole at third base that prospect Brady House does not seem likely to fill imminently.
While intriguing landing spots can certainly be found across the league for Bregman, Houston still looks like the most likely destination on paper. That’s no guarantee, however, and the hot stove always has a way of surprising us.
