The Knesset, Israel’s parliament, has been in summer recess since July 28 and will not reconvene until Oct. 27 because of the Jewish holidays. Until then, and thus for the next six weeks, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be Israel’s virtual dictator, with no legislative constraints.
During this time, he can choose to make a deal with Hamas — or reject one — without interference from Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, the extremist right-wing ministers who have vowed to bring the government down in the event Netanyahu does strike a deal to bring home the remaining hostages.
Netanyahu could call an emergency Knesset session, which the extremist ministers surely would demand if he were to conclude a deal with the terrorists, but he is almost certain not to do so.
Netanyahu is insisting that he will not reach an agreement with Hamas that does not provide for Israeli control of the Philadelphi corridor, the narrow strip of land between Israel and Egypt. He asserts that Egypt has neglected to prevent Hamas from smuggling weapons, many of them supplied by Iran, through tunnels under the corridor. He claims that Israeli control of the nine-mile corridor is an existential condition for his country, and that unless Israel retains its presence there, Hamas will never free the remaining hostages and instead will continue to thrive as Israel’s nemesis
Netanyahu’s demand only came to light after it appeared that both sides were on the verge of an American-sponsored cease-fire deal. His ploy has led many to suspect, not without good reason, that the prime minister has no interest in a cease-fire, whatever its terms, even if that means the loss of all remaining living hostages. Indeed, he reportedly said as much at one of his security cabinet meetings. His primary objective, rather, is to keep his coalition intact, remain in office and avoid conviction on one or more of the criminal fraud charges that he has fought for years.
Moreover, many believe, with some justice, that Netanyahu is delaying any move on a cease-fire until after the American elections, from which he hopes Donald Trump will emerge victorious. Given Trump’s support as president for almost anything Israel requested, Netanyahu is betting that Trump will offer no obstacles to the Israeli war effort, regardless of the toll it continues to take on the Palestinian population.
Israel’s security establishment dismisses Netanyahu’s insistence on retaining the corridor and strongly advocates for a cease-fire agreement. Most notably, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has vehemently argued that there is no urgent need to control Philadelphi. The retired general points out that Israel can recapture the corridor any time it chooses.
Many of senior military and security leaders have questioned why, if the corridor is so important to Israel’s security, Netanyahu did not order it seized and retained years before, perhaps after Israel’s wars with Hamas in 2012 and 2014, when he was also serving as prime minister. Netanyahu could also realize his objectives by agreeing to the creation of a U.S.-led American, Israeli and Egyptian monitoring force, along the lines of the Multinational Force and Observers which for many decades have successfully operated in the Sinai.
Because Netanyahu remains unfettered by any legislative or coalition restraints for the next six weeks, he could acquiesce to the urgings of his generals and security chiefs and reach an agreement with Hamas. Moreover, he could remain in power by bringing the centrist Yesh Atid party into the government. Yair Lapid, the party’s leader, has stated that if joining the coalition meant saving the remaining hostages, he would do it, despite his bitter opposition to Netanyahu’s policies and persona. His one condition is that the prime minister drop both Smotrich and Ben Gvir from the government.
Netanyahu has been reluctant to accept Lapid’s offer. Indeed, having double-crossed Benny Gantz, the previous leader of the opposition, with whom he was supposed to rotate the premiership, Netanyahu no doubt fears that Lapid would do the same to him, causing the government to collapse.
Yet if he truly wishes to save the hostages, he could accept Lapid’s offer before the Knesset returns and agree to a cease-fire. He could, as part of his deal with Lapid, demand that the opposition leader guarantee in writing that he will not leave the government for the rest of its full term. Such an arrangement would politically emasculate Netanyahu’s erstwhile right-wing partners, who, with the Knesset in recess, would be unable to call a vote of no confidence.
President Biden and his negotiators state that their forthcoming cease-fire plan will be the last they will offer — a “take-it-or-leave-it” deal. Whatever the plan’s terms, it is unlikely to succeed as long as Netanyahu continues to heed the demands of his extremist ministers. Only a change in the governing coalition will provide the necessary conditions for a successful U.S. proposal.
Over the next six weeks, Netanyahu has a chance to stop the killing and save hostages’ lives. And he can do so while remaining in office for the rest of his electoral term. Now is the time for him at last to take up Lapid’s sensible offer.
Dov S. Zakheim is a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and vice chairman of the board for the Foreign Policy Research Institute. He was undersecretary of Defense (comptroller) and chief financial officer for the Department of Defense from 2001 to 2004 and a deputy undersecretary of Defense from 1985 to 1987.
