VENEZUELAN tyrant Nicolas Maduro dodged regime change in 2025 by the skin of his teeth – but appears to have barely lasted into the new year.
Donald Trump has confirmed that multiple overnight airstrikes had been carried out on Caracas and that Maduro and his wife were captured and flown out of the country.
The US president has been cranking up his military expansion in the Caribbean and has been threatening land strikes for month.
This morning he followed through on those promises, writing on Truth Social: “The United States of America has successfully carried out a large scale strike against Venezuela and it leader, resident Nicolas Maduro, who has been, along with his wife, captured and flown out of the Country.
“This operation was done in conjunction with U.S. Law Enforcement.”
Trump will hold a press conference at his Mar-a-Lago home a 11am EST (4pm GMT).
Venezuela accused its aggressor of attacking civilian and military sites, forcing the capital into darkness and leading Maduro to declare a state of emergency.
The despot’s government says they “reject, repudiate and denounce” the “extremely serious military aggression” by the US.
Caracas is now set to buckle within the first quarter of 2026 under the Don’s ballooning pressure, Venezuela expert Cesar Alvarez Velasquez said.
The Latin American organised crime analyst told The Sun: “The pressure the US is applying on the Maduro regime, is not sustainable for Venezuela, in terms of the capacity and the capability that Caracas has.”
He added: “This pressure can’t go longer than the first quarter of 2026.”
“If we don’t see results during the first quarter, I would think
on the American side, it will look like a failure.”
The ruthless overnight strikes resulted in power being shut off to the capital just before 2am.
At least seven explosions have been reported, according to CBS News.
Dramatic footage shows huge columns of smoke and flames pluming from the strike sites.
Witnesses on the ground said they heard the terrifying buzz of low-flying airplanes before huge eruptions hit Caracas.
Trump has continually turned up the heat on Maduro over the past few months as he seeks to topple the Venezuelan dictator.
He has accused the former bus driver of being the leader of Cartel de los Soles, as well as an active supporter of drug trafficking into the US.
Since the outset of his second term, the Don has doubled the despot’s bounty to $50million, and carried out a spate of counternarcotic boat blitzes on vessels allegedly smuggling Venezuelan drugs to the US.
Most strikingly, the President has ordered a massive military buildup in Venezuela’s naval backyard – which includes thousands of troops, menacing warships and the world’s largest aircraft carrier.
There is now mounting speculation that Maduro could be taken down by a coup from within his own circle – or even assassinated by US forces.
Geopolitics expert Brian Fonseca said Trump’s campaign is a “long march” for Washington which has left the Venezuelan pariah “fighting for survival”.
He told The Sun: “The warships are there to send a signal that the United States is prepared to go all the way.”
Trump has greenlit covert US operations on Venezuelan soil and at no point ruled out American boots on the ground.
Suggesting what kind of regime change could be in store for Maduro in chilling detail, Velasquez said: “We are talking about something like an operation, like the one that took down Osama bin Laden.”
He added: “Something quick, something surgical, it would be very well planned… but very effective.”
“We’re talking about potentially an intervention of that sort of approach.”
Fonseca stopped short of predicting a full-scale invasion – instead suggesting that Trump’s pressure was designed to “force some type of negotiated transition”.
The Venezuela-watcher said the Don’s unprecedented campaign could be aimed at encouraging the country’s political and military elite to overthrow Maduro from within Caracas.
“We’re looking for some type of palace coup in which the Venezuelan military seizes power, and then forces a transition,” he said.
“Another path is some type of political elite fracture that negotiates a pathway out for Maduro, maybe that’s into exile into Russia.”
He even suggested the Venezuelan president could become neighbours with overthrown Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad.
In November, Washington announced “Operation Southern Spear” – with US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth vowing to remove “narcoterrorists” from the Western Hemisphere as part of the mission.
The world’s biggest aircraft carrier USS Gerald Ford thundered into the Caribbean Sea as part of the US military build-up.
Velasquez said: “The huge military build-up including the USS Gerald Ford arriving at the Caribbean, it sends you a big signal, this is not just mere pressure.
“This is a very tactical, intentional, and determined move made by the US to get results done as soon as possible.”
Some 10,000 troops have gathered in the region, backed up by dozens of warships, submarines and fighter jets, armed with hundreds of long-range missiles.
Fonseca said that Trump’s army buildup was crafted to “show visible signs that there’s a credible, legitimate threat [of] military intervention”.
He said: “The deployment of all of these assets is really designed to reinforce this pressurisation on the political and military elite.
“That said, I don’t think that the United States wants to have some type of conventional military invasion on the ground, I think that would be the worst-case scenario for the Americans.”
Fonseca warned that planning for “the day after” any regime change could unleash fresh chaos, with Maduro’s inner circle left scrambling over whether to side with Washington or stay loyal to Caracas.
But if there were US boots on the ground in an all-out war against Maduro – things could get ugly pretty fast for the tyrant.
“The Venezuelan military is depleted, its military wares are ill-prepared to face the sophistication of the United States military,” Fonseca explained.
He also said that high-ranking officers – some of whom are almost certainly already planning to set up a coup – live in a constant state of paranoia.
Should their attempt to depose Maduro fail – the dictator could lock them up and toss the key.
Even if there isn’t a US invasion planned, Velasquez said Maduro’s options are “very limited”.
He explained how the US continues to bleed slowly as each day passes without results.
But on the other hand, for Caracas, running out of time will be an existential crisis.
“For Maduro, time is oxygen, and on the American side, time is pain,” he said.
“For the Maduro regime, time is precious, because the more time they can buy and chip in, the better they will come out of it.”
Inside Venezuela’s ‘Cartel of the Suns’
CARTEL de los Soles, translated as Cartel of The Suns, isn’t a cartel in the traditional sense.
It’s a web of Venezuelan military, intelligence and political elites accused of taxing, protecting and moving cocaine with state resources.
The broad network of military and political elites has been facilitating cocaine trafficking since the 1990s.
Its name is a nod to the insignia of Venezuelan military generals.
With parts of Maduro’s government deeply enmeshed in the drug trade, the lines between state power and organised crime have been blurred.
Dr César Alvarez, from Charles Sturt University, told The Sun: “Without a doubt, the leader of Cartel de los Soles is Nicolás Maduro.
“The involvement of the highest-ranking members of his military has been clearly demonstrated that not only government officials, but all the leaders from other criminal groups, not only in Venezuela but in Colombia, have been clearly established.”
Experts caution that Cartel de los Soles is less a single, top-down organisation than a fragmented patronage network — with officials taxing, protecting or directly handling cocaine shipments in exchange for loyalty and profit.
That murky structure complicates efforts to dismantle it: even if Maduro denies involvement, the network’s reliance on state power for cover and logistics means corruption is baked into Venezuela’s institutions.
The expert suggested that Maduro may be able to come to an agreement with the US if he manages to duck regime change.
This could see a peaceful transition of government to Edmundo Gonzalez, the legitimate winner of the Venezuelan election last year, Velasquez said.
Maduro would then flee the country – agreeing to give up all his assets in return for safe refuge in a Central American nation close to Venezuela, such as Nicaragua, he added.
For a regime-led coup from within Maduro’s inner circle or the Cartel de los Soles – translated as the Cartel of the Suns – his top allies would need a good reason to back it.
But the military has little incentive to defect while they continue to profit handsomely from the drug trade.
That’s why many now believe that forcibly removing the Maduro dictatorship may be the only viable option left.
Velasquez also revealed how Russia or China might react to further US action.
“If the US makes a move, whether that is a very surgical or kinetic
move on Venezuela… just having one boot on Venezuelan soil will change things.”
He continued: “We all know that Maduro is very close to President Putin, so it would be very interesting to see what the reaction will be.”
But he played down speculation that either Russia or China would become directly involved.
Velasquez asked: “For what? Well, for the Venezuelan oil, as much as it is a very good reason, it is not in the core of the strategic interests of Russia, neither is it for China.”
Whatever options are in store for Maduro in 2026 – they certainly are numbered.
Foncesa said: “There’s not a whole lot of options for him if he leaves the seat he’s in now.”
The think tank head added: “The saying in Latin America is: ‘You either go in the ground, in jail, or in exile.’
“That’s the fate of dictators in Latin America historically.”
