KHOU 11 energy expert Ed Hirs says ERCOT’s winter outlook has improved significantly compared to previous years.
HOUSTON — A new industry report warns that Texas’ rapidly expanding data center industry could put additional pressure on the state’s power grid this winter. But experts say ERCOT is still in a stronger position than it was during the deadly 2021 winter storm.
The findings come just days before ERCOT’s board of directors meets to discuss how large energy-hungry facilities, including data centers and cryptocurrency mines, are reshaping electricity demand across the state.
According to the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, or NERC, winter electricity demand continues to rise across the ERCOT region, driven in part by the growth of 24/7 data centers powering AI systems and other high-tech operations.
NERC’s 2025–2026 Winter Reliability Assessment warns that these facilities are “reshaping” when Texans use power. Because data centers run around the clock, the report says they are flattening the daily load curve, stretching peak demand periods into longer windows — particularly before sunrise and after sunset, when solar isn’t available.
The assessment shows ERCOT has enough capacity under normal conditions, but in an extreme cold scenario, the grid could face tighter reserves, similar to what the state experienced during Winter Storm Uri.
KHOU 11 energy expert Ed Hirs says ERCOT’s winter outlook has improved significantly compared to previous years.
“If a storm comes through like we had in February of 2021, ERCOT estimates a 20% likelihood of rolling blackouts,” Hirs said. “That’s a lot better than last year’s estimate of 80%.”
According to ERCOT’s Monthly Outlook for Resource Adequacy for January 2026, the grid operator’s highest-risk hour this winter is around 8 a.m., when cold morning temperatures coincide with little or no solar production. ERCOT estimates just a 1.4% chance of issuing an Energy Emergency Alert during that peak hour under normal conditions — far below the emergency conditions Texans experienced nearly five years ago.
Hirs says the strain on the grid isn’t only from data centers. Cryptocurrency mining — another high-power, round-the-clock industry — has become one of Texas’ biggest electricity users.
“The cryptocurrency miners now in the past year have used as much electricity as El Paso and the city of San Antonio,” Hirs said. “Now, just in 2021, that was up to the level of Austin.”
Crypto’s massive electricity consumption, he warns, pushes prices higher for everyone else.
The combination of rising natural gas prices and surging industrial electricity use means Texans should expect higher electricity bills this winter.
“The cryptocurrency miners are the parasitic load to the ERCOT grid,” Hirs said.
Hirs says AI data centers have not yet reached the power consumption of crypto mines, but demand is growing rapidly.
Many of those companies are planning to bring their own on-site power generation, which could help ease pressure on the statewide grid.
“Most of them are working to bring their own electricity generation with them,” Hirs said. “Texas has been fortunate with a huge build-out of wind, solar, and batteries, so we’re better able to absorb these new data centers — at least for the time being.”
ERCOT’s board will meet Tuesday in Austin to discuss and address the issue of large electronic loads, a category that includes both data centers and crypto mining operations.
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