(NewsNation) — Vice President Kamala Harris is in good shape to take the White House in 2024, according to the historian who devised the “Keys to the White House” formula.
Allan Lichtman, a historian and American University professor, has correctly predicted nearly every presidential race since 1984 using a formula of 13 true-or-false questions.
Lichtman has correctly predicted nine of the last 10 presidential elections, including former President Donald Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016.
How does ‘Keys to the White House’ formula work
Developed in 1981 with mathematician Vladimir Keilis-Borok, Lichtman’s formula of 13 keys to the White House has helped him make overwhelmingly accurate predictions ever since.
He says that if the party holding the White House loses six of those keys, that party will probably lose the election.
Allan Lichtman’s keys to the White House:
- Party mandate
- Party contest
- Incumbency
- Third party
- Short-term economy
- Long-term economy
- Policy change
- Social unrest
- Scandal
- Foreign/military policy failure
- Foreign/military policy success
- Incumbent charisma
- Challenger charisma
Lichtman explains why he predicts Kamala Harris will win
Lichtman confirmed several keys favoring Harris, including the short-term economy key (no recession in election year) and long-term economy key (per capita growth exceeding previous terms’ average).
While Democrats lost the party mandate key due to their 2022 House losses, Lichtman says they salvaged the crucial party contest key by uniting behind Harris. “Maybe the Democrats listened to me… they united overwhelmingly behind Harris, avoiding the loss of the contest key,” he said.
As of Tuesday, according to Decision Desk HQ’s polling averages, Trump has a 52% chance of winning the Presidency.
Lichtman: Never experienced so much hate in an election before
Lichtman told NewsNation he’s facing unprecedented threats and harassment over his latest forecast.
He revealed that his family’s safety had been compromised, forcing them to contact police and implement security measures. The professor attributed the hostile response to “the toxic influence of Donald Trump.”
“I’ve been getting feedback that is scurrilous, vulgar, violent, threatening,” said Lichtman, 77, who has previously predicted victories for both conservative and liberal candidates, including Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama.
NewsNation’s Katie Smith contributed to this report.
