A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of Missouri voters finds 51% support
incumbent Republican Senator Josh Hawley for re-election, while 41% support Democrat Lucas
Kunce.
One percent support the Green Party candidate, Nathan Kline, 1% support the Libertarian
candidate W.C. Young and 7% are undecided.
“Majorities of Republicans support Hawley and Democrats support Kunce, while independent
voters are split: 42% support Hawley and 41% Kunce,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of
Emerson College Polling said.
“Kunce would need a larger share of independent voters to make a difference in a state where Republicans outnumber Democrats.”
- Kunce’s support is strongest among voters under 40 (49%), while Hawley performs best with voters ages 50-69 (60%).
- Male voters support Hawley over Kunce, 55% to 40%, while women are more split; 47% support Hawley, while 41% support Kunce.
- Kunce leads among voters whose highest level of educational attainment is college, 51% to 45%
The Emerson College Polling Missouri survey was conducted October 22-23, 2024. The sample
of likely voters, n=620, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of
+/- 3.9 percentage points.
The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region based on 2024 likely voter modeling. Turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters, exit polling, and voter registration data.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced.
Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence
interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting cell phones via MMS-to-web text (phone list provided by Aristotle) and an online panel of voters provided by CINT. The survey was offered in English.
All questions asked in this survey with the exact wording, along with full results, demographics,
and cross tabulations can be found under Full Results.
This survey was funded by Nexstar Media.
