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Gambling on the next pope is an older tradition than you might think

by LJ News Opinions
May 4, 2025
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(NEXSTAR) — Though online gambling is taking over the sports world, some sites allow you to bet on things other than sports. Shortly after it was announced that Pope Francis had died, online gambling websites posted the betting favorites to replace him.

According to Oddschecker.com, Italian Pietro Paroling sits at the top with +320 odds, as of Wednesday afternoon, followed by Filipino Luis Antonio Tagle at +400.

Placing a wager on who the next pope will be is not part of a new trend. In fact, some research claims that betting on the next pope can be traced back to the 16th century.


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Evidence of betting on papal succession and how long the conclave would be can be traced to 1502, according to Frederic J. Baumgartner’s “Behind Locked Doors: A History of Papal Elections,” and even then, it was considered an old practice.

According to Baumgartner, the bookmakers in Rome had intimate knowledge of the proceedings during that time and would publish odds and take bets. One bookmaker was reported to have made 20,000 scudi on the conclave in 1549.

It wasn’t long after that betting on papal proceedings was banned by Pope Gregory XIV in 1591. The punishment would be excommunication.

The ban lasted until the 1917 Code of Canon Law, which was the “first integrated code of canon law in the Roman Catholic Church.”


What is a conclave? What to know about the secretive process to elect the next pope

This codification would supersede and repeal any previous codes.

In the modern era, online betting has increased the amount of money gambled on the outcome of the conclave. According to Polymarket, a crypto-based platform that allows users to bet on events, over $11 million has been wagered on who will be the next leader of the Catholic Church.

Placing a wager on Pope Francis’ successor depends on where you are. While betting on the conclave is not illegal in Italy, the practice is frowned upon. Those looking to put their money on the line have turned to a fantasy sports-style game called “Fantapapa.”

In the United States, gambling on papal elections is considered outside the scope of traditional sportsbooks, and thus not offered in the country. Those looking to place a bet would have to use international alternatives.



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