The Post’s Erich Richter makes his picks for Sunday’s and Monday’s NFL Week 3 slate.
Sunday
Dolphins (+4.5) vs. SEAHAWKS
No Tua Tagovailoa, no problem.
Skylar Thompson gets 10 days to prepare for a Seahawks team that needed overtime to beat the Patriots.
De’Von Achane will get an insane amount of carries, which is good news for Dolphins fans.
Seattle allows 4.7 yards per carry, and Miami should lean into that in creative ways in Week 3.
COLTS (-1.5) vs. Bears
Two of the worst teams in the early going face off in this matchup.
Indianapolis is ranked 22nd in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), and Chicago is 24th.
The Bears are allowing 4.5 yards per carry, and they’ve faced poor rushing offenses.
The Joe Mixon-less Texans and the Tony Pollard-, Will Levis-led Titans. Take the Colts at home.
Giants +6.5 vs. BROWNS
The Giants probably would have won last week if they had a kicker.
It’s no excuse, but this team has improved.
Their offense line rates as sixth-best in passing blocking, according to Pro Football Focus, and will be tested by the sixth-best pass rush.
The Browns allow five yards per carry (26th-best).
Daniel Jones and Big Blue run to their first victory.
Packers (+2.5) vs. TITANS
Have to expect Jordan Love plays in this one after practicing three straight days.
The line was 3 when it was expected Malik Willis would start, but it only moved a half-point when Love started practicing.
Expecting this one is closer to pick’em by Sunday, and the Packers win outright.
SAINTS (-3) vs. Eagles
It’s impossible not to look at the Saints and love their offensive system.
They have the highest-ranked offensive line in football and face the worst run defense in football (6.4 yards per carry allowed).
One team is well-prepared for games, the other is not, and is on the road, with a short week, after it just blew a fourth-quarter lead.
Saints win by a touchdown.
Chargers (+1.5) vs. STEELERS
A good old-fashioned slobberknocker as two run-heavy units face off in a battle of the tough guys.
Is Jim Harbaugh really that guy? Sure looks like it.
Rated No. 3 in total DVOA, the Chargers don’t turn it over and they run the ball down their opponents’ throat.
Their also No. 1 in defensive DVOA. Take the points and L.A. to start off 3-0.
VIKINGS (+2) vs. Texans
Minnesota is a tough place to play, just ask Brock Purdy.
Brian Flores’ defensive unit gave the 49ers fits last week, and the Texans didn’t look great against a bad Bears defense on “Sunday Night Football.”
Minnesota fourth in DVOA and Houston is fifth, the points are welcomed here.
BUCCANEERS (-6.5) vs. Broncos
Bo Nix on the road against Baker Mayfield’s band of elite offensive weapons.
Can’t think that Nix will be able to score with the Buccaneers, and Denver’s secondary grades as sixth-worst in football.
By more than a touchdown for Tampa Bay.
Panthers (+5.5) vs. RAIDERS
No reason for there to be only one point difference between Andy Dalton and Bryce Young.
Dalton is a professional quarterback who has loads of experience as an actual starter in this league. It should be a welcomed addition.
Panthers could win outright.
Lions (-3) vs. CARDINALS
If the Lions are what everyone thinks they are, they will win this game going away.
Arizona is getting tons of respect for dismantling a beat up Rams offense who was down Cooper Kupp and multiple offensive lineman again last week.
49ers (-6.5) vs. RAMS
A hold-your-nose spot.
Neither team is healthy, so throw out your models and analytics.
It’s a divisional matchup in which both teams know each other extremely well, and each team is missing their top two or three weapons.
Kyle Shanahan knows Sean McVay well, probably too well.
Opening at 8.5 and sitting at 6.5 is key.
The 49ers offensive guru is 10-3 against the spread against McVay, including 7-0 since 2020.
Ravens (-1.5) vs. COWBOYS
We told you the Cowboys would lose outright to the Saints as 6.5-point favorites, and the same rules apply here.
The Cowboys run defense is pitiful, and the Ravens should take advantage.
FALCONS (+3) vs. CHIEFS
The Falcons are among the best teams in football, you might just not know it yet.
Atlanta is 13th in DVOA, ahead of the Chiefs (18th), despite an embarrassing Week 1 loss to the Steelers.
Every week that Kirk Cousins plays should be closer to his normal, back the Falcons to win outright at home.
Monday
Jaguars (+5.5) vs. BILLS
Staring down the barrel at 0-3, this is your prototypical “kitchen sink” game for Jacksonville.
Trevor Lawrence has lost seven straight games, and I refuse to believe he’s that bad.
Betting on the NFL?
The Bills are playing with house money right now being 2-0 and could be 3-0, but 5.5 is too good a number to pass up.
Jacksonville goes down by a field goal but still covers.
BENGALS (-7.5) vs. Commanders
The Commanders’ secondary made Malik Nabers look like a top receiver in the league.
He may be that, but Daniel Jones isn’t going to make him look like one against any other defense. Washington allowed 7.8 yards per pass attempt, the fourth-most in the NFL.
Joe Burrow slices and dices his way to a 1-2 record.
Last week: 7-8
Season: 12-17.
