I’ve discussed the safest and most overvalued players these past few days, so let’s switch to my top underrated picks — by round — in a 10-team, 0.5 PPR format. The biggest draft weekend of the year is rapidly approaching, so here’s the list of players, Rounds 1-10, who have become value picks relative to their ADP on Yahoo.
Round 1: Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions
I feel like undervalued doesn’t apply to players going in the first round, but the Sun God stands out. ASB’s targets, receptions, yards and touchdowns have increased each of the past three seasons. Plus, he scored the fourth-most fantasy points by a non-QB last season. While his ceiling may not be as high as some of those going before him (Breece Hall, Bijan Robinson, Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson), the production is right there.
Given Chase’s contract hold-in situation and JJ’s new but traveled QB, Amon-Ra has the volume and high-powered offense to outperform his current ADP of 7.8 on Yahoo.
Round 2: Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams
Buy the dip.
Now that Williams added punt returner to his title, people are overreacting. Y’all gotta realize Sean McVay is the Tom Thibodeau of football. If he trusts you, you’re getting all the work. That’s why Williams finished RB7 in only 12 games — he was one of the most utilized players in fantasy. Christian McCaffrey was the only RB to average more points per game than Williams last season.
I get it — fielding punts introduces risk to a guy who missed five games in his first year as a workhorse back. They also drafted an excellent backup in Blake Corum. Still, Williams has first-round upside. If his ADP continues to slide in the mid-second, take him.
Round 3: Josh Jacobs, RB, Green Bay Packers
De’Von Achane has too much steam, so while I was initially out on Jacobs, I’m back in. The injuries to the RB room are piling up, and Jacobs is basically the last man standing. AJ Dillion is out for the remainder of the season, and rookie MarShawn Lloyd is battling hip and hamstring injuries from the preseason. The Packers have no choice but to get their money’s worth.
Jacobs is coming off a down year where he battled injuries and didn’t come close to the rushing metrics we saw when he led the league in rushing in 2022. It’s likely why his ADP has been sliding over the past week. And while he may not be the 2022 guy anymore, operating as the clear No. 1 back in a prolific offense is great for fantasy production.
Round 4: Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins
Waddle is being undervalued after a disappointing 2023 campaign in which he finished as the WR33. A recent calf issue has pushed his ADP back a couple of spots, but the missed practice time appears precautionary.
He’s heading into his fourth season after securing three straight 1,000-yard campaigns. The touchdowns will come, but it’s always good practice to get players tied to explosive, fantasy-friendly offenses. Waddle fits the bill and projects to be a high-end WR2, coming off a 24% target share last season.
Round 5: Trey McBride, TE, Arizona Cardinals
I’m usually not the one to reach for a TE, but McBride is the ideal TE you’ll want this season. He’s less expensive than Travis Kelce or Sam LaPorta in drafts and he’s developed serious chemistry with Kyler Murray. McBride’s fantasy points jumped to 14.9 per game after Kyler Murray returned in Week 10 of last season because Murray targeted TEs at a 34% rate (the highest in the NFL) during that span.
Marvin Harrison Jr. will surely get his share of the target pie, but McBride has a path to TE1 status even in a 1A/1B distribution with the rookie. As Yahoo Football analyst Nate Tice pointed out, the Cardinals are very comfortable rocking with 13 personnel, which only elevates Mcbride’s upside in this offense.
Round 6: David Montgomery, RB, Detroit Lions
Fantasy managers who faded Gibbs to draft Montgomery last season did it right. It could be a savvy move once again. Gibbs is nicked up and despite the hype building around the Lions increasing Gibbs’ workload, lunch pail Monty is the floor raiser with the upside for more whenever Gibbs is sidelined.
The Lions have the best offensive line in football and he’s liable to vulture plenty of TDs. At cost, he’s a solid back in the mid-rounds who will have a prominent role early on, but look to sell by mid-season (like last year).
Round 7: Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Surprise, another player who played below expectations in 2023. Higgins is financially motivated to return to his WR2 form. I’d put Higgins in that DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle category of “an injury could take him to WR1 production” with a slight discount.
Chase’s contract saga should be ironed out before the start of the season, but if it doesn’t, that’s a more straightforward argument to buy into Higgins. The ADP may be slipping, but his connection with Joe Burrow is on point. Chalk up his poor 2023 season to injuries and scoop up the value in 2024.
Round 8: Jordan Love, QB, Green Bay Packers
You don’t have to force the issue at QB, especially in a 10-team format. Love will be sitting there, waiting to be drafted as a reliable but underrated passer for your fantasy squad. Last year was his breakout, but he set a hell of a bar, putting up over 4,400 total yards with 36 touchdowns (32 passing, four rushing).
He was the QB5 and still, he’s going after the likes of C.J. Stroud, Joe Burrow and Dak Prescott. He has numerous weapons at his disposal and his schedule looks money to begin the year. If you decide to wait on QB, Love is a great option. Or, go 1-2 rounds later to land Jayden Daniels or Caleb Williams.
Round 9: Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Rice is one of the only players on the list whose ADP is rising. He’s jumped into the eighth round over the past seven days largely because it doesn’t look like he’ll be suspended in 2024 for his offseason transgressions.
I’ve already shared my thoughts on over-drafting Travis Kelce, and with Hollywood Brown dealing with a shoulder injury, it’s no surprise that Rice led the Chiefs in targets and routes run with Mahomes in the preseason. He’s trending up — and he’s creeping out of undervalued territory.
Round 10: Rome Odunze, WR, Chicago Bears
Odunze ran the most routes with Caleb Williams in the preseason, which indicates that the Bears want to build the rookie duo’s rapport ASAP. Keenan Allen has been dealing with a foot issue, and while that is likely a short-term setback, his absence allows Odunze’s role to expand. This is an upside pick, as Odunze is far too talented not to see the field and produce out of the gate.
