We are finally past the bye weeks and in the fantasy playoffs! Last week, with six teams on a bye, we relied on low-end, volatile players, hoping they could take advantage of good matchups. This week, there are no limitations and we’re facing difficult choices and trust issues. Will big names pull through?
Can flashing talent put up week-winning stats in good matchups?
Jayden Reed, WR, Green Bay Packers
I honestly never thought we’d reach a make-or-break point with Reed, but I think we’ve been in denial. We easily recognize players like Amari Cooper as boom-or-bust by nature but overlook Reed as one of the most volatile receivers in the league. At this point, he has both the talent and the quarterback to finish as the overall WR1 in any given week, even in tough matchups.
On the flip side, he’s also capable of delivering absolutely nothing.
Reed is fresh off a game with zero fantasy points — no receptions on just one target. We knew the potential pitfalls of the Packers’ receiving corps heading into the season and hoped Reed would break out and separate himself from the pack. While he’s clearly the WR1, he doesn’t have the consistent impact or volume of top-tier options from a fantasy perspective. Reed has just one game this season with more than six targets.
He can create high yardage on limited opportunities and make big plays, but he’s extremely touchdown-dependent. Reed has three 100-yard games — a reasonable total, especially considering two of those games were without Jordan Love. However, he also has eight games with 50 or fewer yards.
Will Reed make or break your lineup in Week 15?
This week, Reed faces a Seattle defense that’s inconsistent against the pass. While they don’t give up significant points to opposing wide receivers as a group, at least one receiver typically has a strong fantasy performance against them. Reed could absolutely be that guy who goes off. However, the Packers could still lean heavily on Josh Jacobs. Reed remains an extremely risky option.
If you start him, understand that there’s no middle ground.
Keenan Allen, WR, Chicago Bears
Week 14 was wildly underwhelming for Keenan Allen. He managed just three receptions for 30 yards, finishing as WR55 in half-PPR — a major letdown after two consecutive top-10 finishes. Now fantasy managers are left to ask the big question: which was the anomaly — the two top-10 finishes or last week’s disastrous performance?
We’ve seen more WR55-type performances than top-10 finishes from Allen this year. However, if you attribute those boom games to random game scripts, that’s where the conflict lies this week. If his success hinges solely on game script, this week’s matchup against Minnesota should work in his favor. In Week 12 against Minnesota, Allen had one of his top-10 performances, catching nine of 15 targets (a season-high) for 86 yards and a touchdown. That game also saw DJ Moore finish as a top-10 receiver.
Will Allen make or break your lineup in Week 15?
Looking at the prior matchup, the game was competitive — Chicago played from behind most of the game but stayed within reach, eventually forcing overtime. The game was in Chicago, but weather wasn’t a factor. With the offensive improvements from Caleb Williams, it’s reasonable to expect a similar outcome.
It’s tough to trust Allen — believe me, I’m currently debating starting him in the Scott Fish Bowl — but this matchup offers a high-ceiling opportunity. Given the success Allen had in the previous matchup, we can reasonably expect a similar approach and potentially lean on Allen in this one.
Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos
Denver is coming off the bye, and Week 13 was the last week we saw Javonte Williams … though you probably forgot he even played, given his stat line of four carries for one yard. Yes, that’s an average of 0.25 yards per carry. He did score a touchdown, but since that touchdown accounted for nearly all of his fantasy points, it hardly salvaged the day.
The Broncos’ run game has been completely inconsistent over the past month in terms of usage. In Week 13, it was Jaleel McLaughlin who unexpectedly led the backfield with 14 carries. In Week 12, Williams was the lead back but managed just eight carries for -2 yards. Week 11 also saw Williams as the lead back, but in Week 10, Audric Estimé had the lead role.
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Across the entire backfield, the Broncos have provided just two RB1 performances all season.
Will Williams make or break your lineup in Week 15?
This week’s matchup against Indianapolis does look promising for running backs. The Colts have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing RBs, making them a defense we’ve been targeting all season. However, it’s nearly impossible to trust Williams when we can’t even guarantee he’ll be the lead back.
This is more of a Hail Mary, cross-your-fingers-and-hope situation. Williams has a legitimate floor of one fantasy point. At this point, I can name more than a handful of backup running backs I trust more than Williams — and ironically, none of them are on his team.
Sincere McCormick, RB, Las Vegas Raiders
It’s official! McCormick is the Raiders’ new lead back. If you follow my early waiver wire series — which drops every Sunday afternoon — you were ahead of the game, grabbing McCormick before this week, speculating that he’d eventually be named the lead back.
Unfortunately, McCormick doesn’t yet meet the minimum attempts for Next Gen Stats, so we can’t compare him directly to the rest of the Raiders’ backfield. However, Alexander Mattison has one of the league’s worst rush yards over expected per attempt and hasn’t logged a single RB1 finish in 2024. He’s averaging just 3.3 yards per carry — the worst mark of his career. Meanwhile, McCormick has shined as the best back on the team this season, and it’s not even close.
McCormick has been excellent on the ground but has yet to find the end zone — not entirely his fault. Last week, Aiden O’Connell recorded the Raiders’ first rushing touchdown since Week 9. The bigger issue is that the Raiders’ offense doesn’t move the ball well enough to create consistent red-zone opportunities.
Will McCormick make or break your lineup in Week 15?
We know McCormick is the lead back and this week’s matchup against Atlanta is favorable. The Falcons tend to allow run volume, as evidenced by their performance against Denver. Even that dysfunctional Broncos backfield managed 17 fantasy points from Javonte Williams, one of his two RB1 finishes this season.
McCormick’s lack of receiving work limits his ceiling, but he’s a very intriguing option this week — a safe low-end RB2 with potential upside if he can finally score his first touchdown of the season.
Injury Bonus: Cedric Tillman, WR, Cleveland Browns
Usually, when I discuss players and injury situations, it’s about someone benefiting from increased volume due to a teammate’s absence. This week, I want to quickly touch on Tillman’s potential if he plays.
Tillman’s last full game was in Week 11, when he recorded three receptions on eight targets for 47 yards. He operated as the Browns’ WR1 for three games following Amari Cooper’s exit. Jerry Jeudy had seen a consistent role with a steady floor, but Tillman showed big upside in that stretch. His breakout performance in Week 11 included six receptions on 11 targets for 142 yards and a touchdown. That game kickstarted a hot streak where Tillman finished as WR4, WR21, WR1 and WR17 over the next few weeks.
Will Tillman make or break your lineup in Week 15?
If Tillman returns this week, Jeudy would likely remain the presumed WR1. However, the matchup against Kansas City is highly favorable for passing. Cleveland’s defense has struggled, and Kansas City should exploit those weaknesses. With Nick Chubb still struggling with volume, Cleveland will likely take another pass-heavy approach, creating enough opportunities for Tillman to deliver strong flex value.
