The race to succeed President Trump is gearing up following Turning Point USA CEO Erika Kirk’s endorsement of Vice President JD Vance, marking one of the first major endorsements ahead of the 2028 Republican primary.
Kirk’s backing of Vance, who has not announced whether he is running in 2028, is likely to hold sway given the organization’s influence among conservatives.
Vance is widely viewed as an heir apparent to Trump but some cracks have formed within MAGA world over just who would take the reins of the movement as the vice president sought to strike a unifying tone while addressing AmericaFest over the weekend.
Aside from who might lead to next Republican presidential race, infighting also arose over how to handle free speech and bigotry, suggesting the next leader in the party may face even more obstacles about how far to go in terms of embracing conspiracy theories and other controversial figures.
Besides Vance, there are, it seems, a number of other potential Trump successors who have been throwing elbows. They include Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R ), and the president’s own son Donald Trump Jr.
Trump, himself, has not named a successor and hasn’t thrown his weight fully behind a single potential candidate in Rubio or Vance, teasing that one or both could be on the 2028 ticket. Some Republicans, in turn, have backed a competitive presidential primary.
“I think it’s very important that the Republican party have a competitive primary,” former White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany told Fox News last week.
A hypothetical 2028 Republican primary poll conducted by AtlasIntel showed Vance leading the field with 47 percent support, followed by Rubio at 23 percent and DeSantis at 13 percent support.
Meanwhile, Vance dominated Turning Point USA’s 2028 strawpoll with 84.2 percent support. Rubio came in second with 4.8 percent support followed by DeSantis at 2.9 percent. Trump Jr. came in at 1.8 percent while Cruz garnered 0.3 percent. Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) came in at 0.4 percent. Another 2.5 percent of respondents said they were undecided and 3.1 percent said “someone else.”
Republican strategist Ford O’Connell said Kirk’s endorsement of Vance made sense from their perspective given that Vance’s advantages in being seen as a potential heir apparent to Trump.
“This is smart by TPUSA because they’re getting in on the ground floor with the person who’s most likely to be the nominee,” O’Connell said.
Vance and Rubio have brushed off talk of any potential 2028 rivalry between the two of them.
Meanwhile the vice president and his allies have repeatedly maintained that he is focused squarely on defending the GOP’s majorities in both chambers of Congress next year.
“The VP is immensely grateful for the support of Erika and the entire Turning Point team. It’s tremendous,” one source close to the vice president told The Hill.
“But politically he’s entirely committed to the midterms and won’t make a decision about 2028 until after Election Day,” the source continued.
“That’s why his speech focused on rallying the base around what the administration has achieved to date and what’s at stake if Republicans lose either or both houses of Congress. We cannot exhaust ourselves infighting when there’s so much at stake,” the source said, referring to the vice president’s address at the Turning Point conference on Sunday.
Others viewed Vance’s remarks as a unity speech that sounded like it could have come from someone vying to play the role of GOP flagbearer.
“I appreciate the spin because you have to say that spin but the 2028 race is already well underway,” said one Republican strategist.
“2026 is just going to help color it a bit,” the strategist added.
Next year’s campaign trail will provide Vance with an opportunity to boost his national profile while touting his role in the Trump administration and has someone who can carry on the torch.
“They’re focused on the House not 2028 because if you don’t focus on that, then 2028 gathers less importance because the idea is that you’re electing Vance in the way they elected H.W. to carry on the trajectory,” O’Connell said, referring to former President George H.W. Bush’s 1988 presidential victory.
“Because if you lose the House, the trajectory stops outside of executive orders,” O’Connell added.
Despite Bush’s win, Democrats maintained their majorities in the House and Senate that same year. Only four sitting vice presidents, including Bush, have been elected president in U.S. history.
And if history is any indicator, the Trump administration and their Republican allies will face an uphill climb in next year’s midterms. A sitting president’s party has historically underperformed in the first midterm elections of their administration.
Additionally, a slew of recent polls show growing frustrations with the Trump administration particularly on the economy.
According to a CBS News/YouGov poll released on Sunday, only 18 percent of respondents said they believed Trump’s policies are making them better off financially. Another 45 percent said Trump’s policies will worsen their financial situation in 2026.
Still, there are hopeful signs for Republicans.
The latest polling average from The Hill and Decision Desk HQ found that Trump’s approval rating has actually rebounded from previous lows this year. Trump’s approval rating in the DDHQ average of polls stands at 44.8 percent, marking a 3.5 point increase from last month.
Vance has seen his approval rating improve in the polling average as well, ticking up from around 44 percent in November to just over 45 percent this month.
Republicans argue they are hopeful that trend will continue assuming Trump and Vance each hit the campaign trail in 2026. Vance gave a preview of what to expect from him on the trail when he touted Trump’s efforts to bring inflation down during an event in battleground Pennsylvania earlier this month.
Despite Vance being best positioned at the moment to take over where Trump leaves off, those in his orbit say he would be all for a competitive 2028 primary.
“If he chooses to run, he knows there’s not going to be a coronation. Nobody wants that,” said the source close to the vice president. “The more the merrier.”
