New York City Mayor Eric Adams is facing an increasingly uncertain future as he stares down both a criminal trial and a likely fierce reelection battle next year.
Adams was indicted in September on federal corruption charges over allegedly accepting bribes from wealthy businessmen and a Turkish government official. He has denied all wrongdoing and pleaded not guilty, but his popularity dropped even more after prosecutors unveiled the charges.
Now he faces significant hurdles, with both the trial and numerous experienced opponents lining up to challenge him in what is certain to be one of the most closely watched elections in 2025.
“His political prospects could not be dimmer,” said one New York Democratic strategist, “if you look at data, if you look at anecdotals, if you look at how one marshals together a reelection campaign, especially in a really tough environment.”
Adams, a former police captain who previously served as Brooklyn Borough president, ran a successful mayoral campaign in 2021 on a message running as a moderate with an appeal to the working class. He emerged from a crowded primary and easily won the general election to become the city’s second Black mayor.
But Adams’s tenure has been rocky, with criticism over issues like the availability and cost of housing, mixed statistics on crime levels and the influx of migrants over the past couple years, many sent from southern states with Republican governors.
His approval rating has dropped significantly since he took office, reaching a 28-percent low in a December 2023 Quinnipiac University poll. That’s the lowest since the university began polling registered voters in the city in 1996.
This was before the indictment was handed up against Adams this fall, which made him the first sitting mayor in New York City’s history to be indicted in office, nine months before the Democratic primary in June.
Adams has asserted his innocence and vowed to continue as mayor despite some pressure to resign. He has also continued his reelection bid, though analysts say the obstacles facing him are mounting.
“New Yorkers do not think he’s done a good job as mayor, even before the indictments,” said New York Democratic strategist Gabe Tobias.
Several prominent candidates entered the Democratic primary even before Adams was indicted, including Comptroller Brad Lander, former Comptroller Scott Stringer and New York state Sens. Zellnor Myrie and Jessica Ramos.
State Assembly member Zohran Mamdani joined the race after Adams was charged, and a few others have expressed interest, including former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo and former Democratic National Committee Vice Chair Michael Blake.
The legal battle for Adams itself already appears difficult on its own. He faces five counts, covering alleged conduct going back years to before he became mayor, and could receive a sentence of decades in prison if convicted.
But even if Adams survives the legal scrutiny, navigating the primary is its own challenge.
“Part of his problem right now, his political problem, is that there was not a great bulwark of goodwill to lean back on when the tough times came,” the strategist said. “When the really tough times of an investigation came along, it’s not like he had this great cushion of good feelings and good will from voters.”
Following his indictment, Adams’s political fundraising almost completely fell off, only taking in a single donation of $250 in the two and half weeks after he was charged. He also only raised just above $200,000 during the third quarter of 2024, his worst such period since he took office in 2021.
The Hill has reached out to a spokesperson for Adams for comment about his electoral prospects.
But Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf warned against counting Adams out, arguing that he has a “built-in following” among Black and conservative voters.
In the Quinnipiac poll results, Black voters were the only group that Adams had an above-water favorability rating with.
He also noted that the city has had a pattern of voting in the center more recently and only two mayors in the past 70 years have been defeated for reelection, only serving one term.
Sheinkopf said Adams would give himself the best chance by continuing with his job responsibilities to improve the city.
“Be the mayor. That’s the job. Run the city, run the agencies, take care of crime and get the city running,” he said. “If we can do that, and get announced more affordable housing construction, the things voters care about, these positions are winning it.”
But Tobias said Adams’s best path may lie outside the Democratic electorate. He noted Adams’s closeness to President-elect Trump recently and avoidance of criticizing the former president.
Trump and Adams notably briefly spoke together at a UFC fight last weekend, during which Adams said Trump told him he’s done a great job as mayor.
“If [Vice President] Harris won, his political career would have been over. But now he does have a slim path to re-election — if he’s willing to become a stooge for the Trump administration. He’ll try to argue that being friendly with the White House is good for the city,” Tobias said, but argued that it would mean being willing to “help destroy the lives” of immigrants, trans people and other vulnerable New Yorkers.
Adams avoided on multiple occasions questions about whether he would accept a pardon from Trump during appearances on “The View” and “CNN,” though he said it’s “not on my agenda.”
Tobias said the argument of what he can do for the city may appeal to the general electorate more than Democratic primary voters turned off by ties to Trump.
The strategist said even if the legal issues go away, it may still not change his political situation given his poor job approval even before he was charged.
“I would think what everyone in New York is watching carefully is how closely does he flirt with Trump to have a partner if he needs one,” they said.
