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Earthquake swarm jolts California as scientists warn of 95% chance of major disaster by 2043

by LJ News Opinions
January 8, 2026
in Technology
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By CHRIS MELORE, US ASSISTANT SCIENCE EDITOR

Published: 09:50 EST, 8 January 2026 | Updated: 10:33 EST, 8 January 2026

An earthquake swarm has broken out in Northern California and experts fear it’s almost certain the region will suffer a major disaster by 2043.

The US Geological Survey (USGS) recorded dozens of small earthquakes in a region known as The Geysers, less than 75miles north of San Francisco.

The latest swarm included a 4.2 magnitude earthquake that struck near the city of Cloverdale just after 3am ET Thursday morning.

According to nearly 200 residents reporting to USGS, the noticeable tremor was felt as far away as the San Francisco Bay and the city of Palo Alto, over 100 miles from the quake’s epicenter.

There have not been any reports of injuries or property damage at this time, and most of the reports to USGS described the quake as producing only ‘light’ shaking in the area.

Since the magnitude 4.2 earthquake, another 12 minor tremors have been recorded around The Geysers, a large geothermal field which lies atop a network of seismic faults, including the Bartlett Springs Fault Zone and the Healdsburg–Maacama Fault system.

The seismic outbreak has renewed fears that a major earthquake is not only possible in Northern California and the Bay Area, but is nearly guaranteed to erupt within the next 20 years.

According to a 2015 report by USGS scientists, there is a 95 percent probability that at least one major quake, stronger than magnitude 6.7, will strike somewhere in the region by 2043.

This is a breaking story. More details to follow.

Dozens of small earthquakes, including a magnitude 4.2 quake, have struck Northern California Thursday morning (Stock Image)

USGS scientists have previously warned that an earthquake stronger than magnitude 6.7 has a 95 percent chance of striking near the Bay Area (Pictured) by 2043

USGS scientists have previously warned that an earthquake stronger than magnitude 6.7 has a 95 percent chance of striking near the Bay Area (Pictured) by 2043 

USGS’s earthquake forecast predicted that this impending earthquake had a 72 percent chance of striking right in the San Francisco Bay Area, home to approximately eight million people.

Overall, the grim report estimated that there was more than a 99 percent certainty that a major quake over magnitude 6.7 would erupt somewhere in the state, including Southern California, closer to Los Angeles and San Diego.

Researchers mentioned three specific fault lines running through Northern California that could trigger such a devastating event – the Hayward, Calaveras, and San Andreas faults.

While the infamous, 800-mile-long San Andreas has long been viewed as the likeliest seismic area which will unleash California’s next major quake, the report concluded that the nearby Hayward and Calaveras faults currently have a higher chance of rupturing in the next two decades.

Researchers suggested that the northern portion of the San Andreas, near San Francisco, had less than a seven percent chance of producing a major earthquake because of its relatively recent activity during the 1906 mega earthquake.

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Earthquake swarm jolts California as scientists warn of 95% chance of major disaster by 2043

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