Before we sort through end-of-season Deshaun Watson exit strategies for the Cleveland Browns, let’s make one thing clear: Watson remains the starting quarterback.
Browns fans know the routine.
Another week, another depressing performance from the offense, followed by credibility-sapping assurances that Watson remains QB1.
It happened again Sunday after the Browns lost 20-16 at Philadelphia despite scoring on a blocked field goal return.
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Cleveland is the first team in more than two decades to play the first six games of a season without gaining 300 total yards or exceeding 18 points even once.
Watson’s EPA (expected points added) per pass play ranks 590th out of 592 quarterbacks who started the first six games of a season since 2000, per TruMedia.
It’s worse than bad, even by latter-day Browns standards.
The Pick Six column leads by exploring how every Browns fan’s fantasy — that this Watson charade might end — could become reality. The salary-cap ramifications would make cutting Watson painful, but not impossible. Could there be a way for Cleveland to thread the tiniest needle on a trade, even if no other teams had any interest in Watson playing for them? I’ve run through scenarios with executives from other teams and will lay it all out here.
First, the full Pick Six menu:
• Watson endgame for Browns
• Chargers for real? Taking stock
• Which 9-8 teams fooled themselves?
• Massive fallout from Lions-Cowboys
• When Reid might break Shula’s record
• 2-minute drill: Rodgers vs. 2012 Peyton
1. Let’s check all the boxes necessary for the Browns to begin life anew, without Watson, once this season ends.
The evidence says Watson is a liability on and off the field. Even if he improved as a quarterback, could any fan with a conscience root for him after more than 20 settled lawsuits and the lack of public accountability? Could a Browns fan ever feel good about him?
It’s incredibly shitty to do this to the rest of the team. Joel Bitonio is out there every week playing through who knows what and has to wreck his body when they have no chance of being good b/c of the QB. Myles Garrett is playing in pain every week. Feel for everyone else there https://t.co/jswBSCNoP8
— Mitchell Schwartz (@MitchSchwartz71) October 13, 2024
“Watching him play, it looks like he has no confidence,” an exec said. “It’s brutal. I just don’t see how he ever gets it back with the history and everything that’s happened.”
The Browns could get out of this after the season by trading Watson and draft capital to another team in exchange for a package that could include another player and/or draft considerations. They could finesse the cap implications by executing a sign-and-trade. But it’s complicated.
A Watson trade after the season rests on three assumptions:
• The situation in Cleveland will be untenable for all parties. The Browns won’t want to keep saying Watson is their guy or even have him around. Watson will not want to continue the misery either.
“I think the league would like to see him go away also,” the exec added.
• Cleveland will not want to perform the cap and roster machinations that would come with releasing him. Watson’s 2025 salary-cap charge would increase from $73 million to $172 million (if cut before June 1) or $118 million (if after June 1), per Over the Cap. The $118 million figure could be doable, but the Browns might have a harder time competing in the short term. Under this scenario, they would seek a trade.
• Any team acquiring Watson would not see him as a candidate to play for them. The baggage associated with Watson far outweighs whatever on-field potential remains.
“They could cut him tomorrow and no one would pick him up,” another exec said. “I would not want that toxicity to have anything to do with my team build.”
From there, three boxes must be checked:
• Watson must waive his no-trade clause. He would get out of Cleveland and still get the $92 million due to him over the next two seasons. Money could be moved around so that he gets some of it earlier than he otherwise would.
• Cleveland and the acquiring team must agree to terms. Bad teams with billionaire owners and lots of cap space could conceivably command a haul from Cleveland for taking Watson and his salary if the Browns feel motivated enough to move him.
“Carolina should do it,” a third exec said. “So should the Patriots.”
OK, but how much draft capital would you need to absorb up to $92 million in salary for a player you’re going to cut?
“The conversation starts with multiple 1’s,” this exec said. “Maybe less if Cleveland wants to pay salary.”
No way, a fourth exec protested.
“My point is, as uncomfortable as it may be, simply keeping Watson on the roster in 2025 is an option,” he said.
In 2017, the Houston Texans traded second- and sixth-round picks with quarterback Brock Osweiler to Cleveland for a fourth-round choice, so that the Browns would pay Osweiler’s $16 million salary. Taking on $16 million for what amounted to a second-round pick is one potential guide (Osweiler never played for the Browns).
“If I were the acquiring team,” this exec added, “I’d say, ‘One second-round pick equals $16 million, so if we are taking on $50 million of the $90 million, that’s three 2’s.’”
Of the Osweiler cash-to-picks ratio, a fifth exec said, “Cleveland has too many smart people to do something that asinine” with Watson.
“To get rid of, say, $30 million out of $90 million and have to give up two second-round picks? I’m not doing that if I’m Cleveland,” the fourth exec said. “The numbers are so much larger here that it is a much more complicated analysis. And you have two years of guarantees, not just one. That is why, in the end, I don’t see why Cleveland shouldn’t just sit him and wait.”
• The league must approve the deal: One salary-cap manager said the league issues memos to teams warning against trading for cap space. But two higher-ranking execs with extensive experience executing trades said the Osweiler deal and others in which teams agree to pay some salary for traded players renders those warnings hollow.
“The league might tell Cleveland they won’t approve it to scare them,” one of the higher-ranking execs said.
Even if the league wants Cleveland to endure pain for signing Watson to a fully guaranteed deal, that likely isn’t all the league wants.
“Would everybody involved like it just to recede into the history books and be done?” another exec asked rhetorically.
| Watson Scenario | 2025 Cap Hit |
|---|---|
|
Stays on roster |
$72,935,000 |
|
Cut pre-June 1 |
$172,734,000 |
|
Cut post-June 1 |
$118,935,000 |
|
Traded pre-June 1 |
$80,734,000 |
|
Traded post-June 1 |
$26,935,000 |
The two highest-ranking execs predicted Cleveland would rather hold onto Watson or cut him than part with significant draft capital to trade him. The need to sever all ties with Watson could feel less acute by next week or next month once Jameis Winston replaces him in the lineup.
“When it becomes clear they are willing to have him sit (next season), then you might get an offer from a team that is a more realistic one,” one of these execs said. “I do not see that happening, but I certainly would not make it look like I need to get rid of this guy. Look how that is working with Davante Adams.”
If Watson stays in Cleveland, he would collect his $46 million salary in 2025 while his deal would count $73 million against the cap, pending any tweaks to his deal. No player in league history has counted even $50 million against the cap in a given year while on the roster. The historic $53 million charge Denver absorbed this year for cutting Russell Wilson is less than half what Cleveland would incur from going the same route.
How willing might the Browns become to mitigate some of the financial burden by trading draft capital? That’s only one question to consider.
“The other part of that is, I know there is no collusion in this world, but how many of these other owners are going to say, ‘F— you, we are not bailing the Browns out of anything’?” one of the execs said.
2. The Chargers’ defense has dominated every offense in the AFC West, and it’s only Week 6. The offense perked up Sunday. Is this the start of something?
Last week, we highlighted the job Denver Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph has done in helping his high-profile boss, Sean Payton, compete while fielding a bottom-five offense.
Chargers defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, who briefly took over head-coaching duties when Jim Harbaugh fell ill during a victory over Denver on Sunday, has done similar work for his boss.
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The Chargers are 3-2 while playing offense so conservatively for much of the season that an opposing coach joked of Harbaugh, “Jimmy approaches every game like he’s starting for the Bears.”
The offense came to life against Joseph’s defense Sunday after failing to surpass even 180 yards passing in any of the first four games, a first since 2002 for the franchise that brought us Dan Fouts and Philip Rivers.
The defense did what it has done all season.
The Chargers’ jump from 28th in defensive EPA per play last season to No. 1 through Sunday reflects a schedule featuring terrible opposing offenses (Raiders, Panthers, Steelers, Broncos). But the way Minter’s defense performed against Kansas City in Week 4 counts for quite a bit. That was the Chargers’ 11th matchup against Patrick Mahomes and the first in which Los Angeles’ defense finished with positive EPA.
The chart above shows what a Chargers optimist might call the Minter effect in these games against Mahomes.
The team has now posted positive defensive EPA in all five games to start the season, matching the 2006 Wade Phillips-coordinated defense for the Chargers’ longest streak to start a season since 2000. Next up: games against the Arizona Cardinals, New Orleans Saints, Cleveland Browns and Tennessee Titans.
3. From Tampa Bay to Seattle, seven teams finished 9-8 last season. Were they honest with themselves? Here’s what the evidence says so far.
These seven teams have a combined 19-23 record through Sunday, from Green Bay and Tampa Bay at one end to Jacksonville at the other.
Let’s run it back
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2): Tampa Bay and Green Bay are tied for 11th in win percentage since moving on from Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers, respectively, after the 2022 season. Both teams are 13-10 (.565) since then. Tampa Bay has had one of the five youngest offenses by snap-weighted age this season (the Packers have the youngest).
Green Bay’s front office commanded 16 top-five votes on 40 ballots in a recent survey by The Athletic. Should the Bucs get more love?
It’s been an interesting 11-year run for general manager Jason Licht. Tampa Bay went from 2-14 to 6-10 to 9-7 in his first three seasons, then plateaued and fell off while trying to develop Jameis Winston. Landing Brady helped deliver the franchise its second Lombardi Trophy. If the Bucs win the NFC South this season, that will make four consecutive division titles, two without Brady.
Wait until we get our QBs healthy
• Cincinnati Bengals (2-4): Burrow’s surgically repaired right wrist might not be all the way back, but his legs look just fine. His 47-yard touchdown run against the Giants on Sunday night put him on a list we never expected Burrow to join (one of 13 quarterbacks since 2000 to have a rushing touchdown that long). Cincinnati’s defense had been the problem for most of this season until holding New York to seven points.
• Indianapolis Colts (3-3): Richardson returned from shoulder surgery, but not for long. He has now missed 15 of 23 possible starts due to injury. The Colts were good enough to go 7-6 with Gardner Minshew in the lineup last season. They might fare better than that this season with Joe Flacco, who now has seven touchdown passes with one interception for Indy. As for Richardson, we’ve learned what we already knew, that staying on the field would be difficult for him.
A scheme change can push us higher
• Seattle Seahawks (3-3): They replaced Pete Carroll with Mike Macdonald to upgrade their defensive scheme. They ranked first in defensive EPA per play through Week 3 after facing Denver, New England and Miami. They rank 30th since then after facing Detroit, the Giants and San Francisco. Who are they? What is Macdonald’s vision for playing style?
• New Orleans Saints (2-4): The early returns from Klint Kubiak’s hiring as offensive coordinator were overwhelmingly positive, but it’s been a struggle lately. Injuries to quarterback Derek Carr and now receiver Chris Olave are turning this into a see-what-we-have-in-Spencer Rattler season.
We are so excited, we are doubling down on our young QBs ahead of schedule
• Green Bay Packers (4-2): Jordan Love has 12 touchdown passes in four starts, the most for any quarterback through his first four starts this season. The Packers’ ability to win twice with Malik Willis behind center, when Love was injured, kept them in position. The defense, under new coordinator Jeff Hafley, has collected 17 turnovers, most for any Packers team through six games since 2002. All appears on schedule so far.
• Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5): The Jaguars’ record through the first six games of this season is the same as their record through the final six last season. Is that so shocking? It must be for the Jaguars. Their five-year, $275 million offseason extension for quarterback Trevor Lawrence precipitated owner Shad Khan calling this the best team in franchise history.
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4. The Lions beat the Cowboys 47-9 but lost Aidan Hutchinson. Let’s sort through the ramifications.
The game itself: The Lions over their past two games have rushed 64 times for 300 yards while completing 83 percent of their passes for 581 yards, six touchdowns, no interceptions and a maximum 158.3 passer rating.
This two-game stretch is an extreme manifestation of what can happen when Detroit faces teams that are weak against the run (Dallas on Sunday, Seattle before that).
Dallas was also coming off back-to-back prime-time road games, both hard-fought, while the Lions were coming off a bye. We saw the best version of Detroit against the worst version of Dallas. The Cowboys now get their bye week. It’s a long season.
McCarthy’s job status: Owner Jerry Jones said he’s not considering a coaching change during the bye. I believe him. Mike McCarthy has a 45-28 (.616) record with Dallas, he presumably has Dak Prescott’s backing, the team is still in the mix at 3-3 and Mike Zimmer’s defense hasn’t played well enough for him to take over as interim coach.
What the Lions can do: Hutchinson’s season-ending broken leg dealt an emotional blow. Longer term, his absence could make the difference between reaching the Super Bowl or falling short. Hutchinson has been that good while posting the NFL’s highest pressure rate since 2019 (first eight games, minimum 150 pass rush snaps).
Pressure rate (150+ rushes): Games 1-8, 2019-24
General manager Brad Holmes isn’t going to find another Hutchinson, but there could be opportunities at the trade deadline as teams fall from contention. The Panthers’ Jadeveon Clowney and the Browns’ Za’Darius Smith play for teams that are fading fast. The Jets are waiting out Haason Reddick. What if they lose a few more games?
“They are playing at such a high level right now,” an exec said. “Sometimes there is just a moment where you have to overpay. Are you going to the Super Bowl or not? Are you going to try?”
A former GM wasn’t as enthusiastic.
“You can work the phones between now and the trade deadline,” he said, “but that’s going to be an uphill battle.”
5. Andy Reid’s 5-0 Kansas City Chiefs have won nearly 80 percent of Patrick Mahomes’ starts. Here’s a cheat sheet showing when Reid might pass Don Shula for the most coaching wins in NFL history.
The undefeated start has left Reid with 289 career wins, counting playoffs. He needs 36 wins to pass George Halas for third on the all-time list, 45 wins to pass Bill Belichick for second and 59 wins to pass Shula for the record.
The table below projects when Reid might pass Shula based on six potential future win rates.
Passing Shula: Andy Reid timeline
| Reid Win % | Games to Shula | Season (G#) |
|---|---|---|
|
.850 |
70 |
2027 Game 16 |
|
.800 |
74 |
2027 Game 20 |
|
.750 |
79 |
2028 Game 5 |
|
.700 |
85 |
2028 Game 11 |
|
.650 |
91 |
2028 Game 17 |
|
.600 |
99 |
2029 Game 5 |
Because playoff games count toward the record and Mahomes’ postseason win rate (15-3, .833) is roughly the same as his regular-season win rate, I’ve used 20-game seasons as the basis for calculating when Reid might pass Shula. That assumes a 17-game regular season and three potential playoff games, accounting for the divisional round through the Super Bowl.
It’s tough taking win rates for granted in the NFL, unless we are talking about Reid win rates. The four quarterbacks with at least 10 regular-season starts under Reid during his 25-year career as a head coach all had winning records, from Mahomes to Donovan McNabb to Alex Smith to Michael Vick.
| Reid QB | W-L-T | Win Pct |
|---|---|---|
|
94-25-0 |
.790 |
|
|
101-56-1 |
.642 |
|
|
51-30-0 |
.630 |
|
|
18-17-0 |
.514 |
The rate for Mahomes is near 80 percent, which could be sustainable now that Kansas City is supporting him with a talented young defense.
6. Aaron Rodgers, like Peyton Manning with Denver in 2012, has a 2-3 starting record in what amounts to his first season in the lineup with his new team. Those Broncos won their next 11.
With Rodgers’ Jets facing the Buffalo Bills with a shot to improve to 3-3 on Monday night, I was curious how other older future Hall of Fame quarterbacks fared in their first five games with their new teams.
Rodgers made his Jets debut last season, but he lasted only four snaps before suffering a season-ending injury. For the sake of comparison, I’ve stacked Rodgers’ first five starts of 2024 against the first five starts other 35-and-older future Hall of Famers made with their new teams.
Future HOF QBs With New Teams (Age 35+)
| QB | First 5 Starts | Team Reached |
|---|---|---|
|
2-3 |
TBD |
|
|
3-2 |
Super Bowl (W) |
|
|
2-3 |
Divisional Round |
|
|
3-2 |
No Playoffs (9-7) |
|
|
4-1 |
AFC Title Game |
Manning’s 2012 Denver Broncos fell to 2-3 with a Week 5 defeat at New England. They trailed by at least 20 points in all three defeats, including 31-7 against the Patriots. They did not fire their coach. They won their next 11 games to finish 13-3 in their first season with Manning behind center, after Manning missed a season to recover from neck surgery.
Manning was more prolific during the Broncos’ 2-3 start than Rodgers has been this season. However, he did have a three-pick game in a Week 2 defeat at Atlanta (Minnesota intercepted Rodgers three times last week).
| QB | 2012 Manning | 2024 Rodgers |
|---|---|---|
|
Game Nos. |
1-5 |
1-5 |
|
W-L |
2-3 |
2-3 |
|
Cmp-att |
130-197 |
111-182 |
|
Cmp% |
66% |
61% |
|
Yds |
1,499 |
1,093 |
|
Yds/att |
7.6 |
6.0 |
|
TD-INT |
11-3 |
7-4 |
|
Rating |
101.0 |
81.6 |
|
Sacked |
10 |
13 |
|
EPA/pass play |
+0.20 |
-0.09 |
|
16+ cmp |
33 |
21 |
|
Tm OFF EPA/G |
+7.6 |
-6.0 |
|
Tm DEF/ST EPA/G |
-3.4 |
+7.6 |
All the other legendary quarterbacks listed above had winning records in their debut seasons with their new teams. Joe Montana missed games early in his 1993 debut season with the Chiefs. Kansas City went 8-3 with him in the lineup that first year.
Johnny Unitas flamed out with the San Diego Chargers in 1973, his age-40 season, starting only four games and retiring after the season. Joe Namath suffered a similar fate with the Los Angeles Rams in 1977, when he was 34. He never played again, either.
• Lamar Jackson’s Baltimore Ravens held off Jayden Daniels’ Washington Commanders 30-23 in Baltimore. The score was 3-3 through one quarter and 10-10 deep into the second. Commanders coach Dan Quinn said more than once the game felt more lopsided than the score. But I thought this game was better than it could have been for Washington.
Daniels has now played six consecutive solid games to start his career. This was his sixth consecutive start averaging at least 0.10 EPA per pass play. Only 11 other quarterbacks since 2000 have strung together streaks that long to start a season. Their names: Mahomes, Peyton Manning, Rodgers, Brady, Rivers, Matthew Stafford, Josh Allen, Daunte Culpepper, Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo and Kurt Warner.
As former Washington coach Jay Gruden pointed out, the job that Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson turned down looks pretty appealing now.
• The Bears should be pleased with their improvement and rookie quarterback Caleb Williams’ improvement recently. They are 4-2 and can breathe following a 1-2 start to the season.
“He made a couple Tier 1 throws into tight windows in the red zone,” a veteran coach said.
We called Chicago the fourth-best team in the NFC North not long ago. A trip to Washington in Week 7 will tell us more than four victories over one-win teams in Tennessee, the Rams, Carolina and Jacksonville.
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• The Saints scored 27 second-quarter points against Tampa Bay and still lost, 51-27.
Teams are now 46-2 since 2000 when scoring at least 25 points in the second quarter. The table below shows won-lost records since then in all games when teams scored more than 24 in the second quarter.
| 2Q Points | W-L-T | Win % |
|---|---|---|
|
35 |
2-0 |
1.000 |
|
34 |
1-0 |
1.000 |
|
31 |
4-0 |
1.000 |
|
29 |
1-0 |
1.000 |
|
28 |
28-0 |
1.000 |
|
27 |
7-2 |
.778 |
|
26 |
2-0 |
1.000 |
|
25 |
1-0 |
1.000 |
|
Totals |
46-2 |
.958 |
The other defeat, per TruMedia: Detroit lost 37-27 at Pittsburgh in Week 11 of 2013. That Lions team could not stop Roethlisberger from tossing two touchdown passes in the final five minutes.
The Saints picked off Baker Mayfield three times Sunday but couldn’t stop him from tossing four touchdown passes for an offense that amassed 594 yards. No defense with Dennis Allen as head coach or coordinator has allowed more yards in a game.
• New England Patriots rookie Drake Maye came away from his first start with three touchdown passes, including a 40-yard deep shot to Kayshon Boutte.
.@DrakeMaye2‘s first @NFL TD is to @KayshonBoutte1 🏈
📺: CBS pic.twitter.com/Oi7BpFvq6H
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) October 13, 2024
The Patriots trailed 27-7 and lost 41-21, falling to 1-5 with their fifth consecutive defeat. Their offense posted its second-worst EPA game of the season by total and per play. So far in Week 6, only Dallas had a lower success rate on offense than New England’s 32 percent.
None of that matters much. This Patriots season has started anew. There’s now reason to watch.
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• The Seattle-era indoor-outdoor splits for Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith continued to diverge following back-to-back home defeats in the elements.
Indoors (11 starts): 23 touchdowns, five interceptions, 8.2 yards per attempt, 108.1 rating, 0.19 EPA per pass play
Outdoors (26 starts): 32 touchdowns, 22 interceptions, 7.0 yards per attempt, 88.6 rating, -0.03 EPA per pass play
(Photo: Elsa / Getty Images)
The story of the greatest players in NFL history. In 100 riveting profiles, top football writers justify their selections and uncover the history of the NFL in the process.
The story of the greatest players in NFL history.
