Former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) holds a double-digit lead in the New York City mayoral race, according to a Siena College poll released Tuesday.
The poll showed Cuomo ahead in the first round of a hypothetical ranked-choice voting match-up, with 34 percent support to the 16 percent earned by his next closest opponent in the Democratic primary, State Assembly member Zohran Mamdani. City Comptroller Brad Lander, City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams and former Comptroller Scott Stringer tied for third with 6 percent support each, while the remaining candidates all received less than 5 percent.
Playing out the hypothetical ranked-choice voting system, in which the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated and their votes are redistributed on the basis of their voters’ second preferences, Cuomo would win the Democratic nomination in the eighth round, finishing with 54 percent of the vote to Mamdani’s 27 percent and Lander’s 19 percent.
The poll is the first major one of the race since incumbent Mayor Eric Adams (D) chose to run as an independent rather than continue in the Democratic primary, citing the effect that his criminal case had on his chances of winning the nomination. Adams had been trailing in the polls of the Democratic field well behind Cuomo, usually receiving support in the low double digits or high single digits.
Strategists said Adams’s departure from the primary could have uncertain effects, possibly helping Cuomo as the two of them generally appeal to the same type of moderate voter or giving another candidate the opportunity to emerge as the main alternative to Cuomo.
But the Siena poll shows the race mostly staying the same, with Cuomo enjoying the comfortable lead he has had since entering the race at the start of last month.
The results show Cuomo ahead in all five boroughs of New York, with his most significant leads coming in the Bronx, Queens and Staten Island. He had support from a majority of respondents in the Bronx.
His narrowest lead came in Brooklyn, leading Mamdani by 5 points.
Cuomo also leads across various demographic groups, the poll says, with 42 percent of Black and African American voters and 39 percent of Hispanic voters backing him.
Cuomo spokesperson Rich Azzopardi told The Hill that the former governor plans to “fight for every vote just as he is going to fight for New York City.”
“This city is in crisis and Governor Cuomo is the only person in this race with the experience to lead the proven record of results and that’s why he has built a broad coalition of support that reflects our great city and is leading in every borough, and with every race and gender,” Azzopardi said.
The survey does show further evidence of Mamdani, who is running as a progressive with the backing of Democratic Socialists of America, emerging as the second choice in the primary. A few polls have shown him starting to tick up a bit, and he’s been the only candidate other than Cuomo, and previously Adams, to frequently reach double digits in polling.
But Mamdani has still been well behind Cuomo.
Mamdani’s campaign highlighted the results as showing he has gained on Cuomo from an Emerson College poll from last month, which had him trailing 28 points.
“Former Governor Andrew Cuomo is the clear early leader in the Democratic primary with State Representative Zohran Mamdani a distant second,” Siena College Research Institute Director Don Levy said. “But one of five voters haven’t yet decided on even a first vote in the ranked choice voting system.”
Levy said New Yorkers are giving a clear message in polling that they want a candidate who will make life more affordable and increase the amount of affordable housing. He said crime is also a concern, but 90 percent said cost of living is an issue across the city.
The poll was conducted from April 7 to 10 among 811 registered New York City voters, including 556 registered Democrats. The margin of error for the overall sample is 3.7 points, while the margin for Democratic voters is 4.9 points.
