South Korea is floundering in a time of uncertainty, in which its future as both a relatively new democracy and an old American ally is at stake. Unimaginable though it might seem, the conservative government is dealing simultaneously with the twin menaces of President Trump’s tariffs and the rise of a leftist-led movement — one that has thrown out the country’s conservative President Yoon Suk Yeol and is favored to take over in a “snap election” on June 3, six months after Yoon’s foolish attempt at imposing martial law on Dec. 3.
The front-runner, Lee Jae-myung, is almost certain to win the nomination of the left-leaning Democratic Party, or Minju, after engineering the demise of Yoon, who defeated him by less than 1 percent in the 2022 presidential election. The fact that Lee is a flawed figure, accused of sending money to North Korea when he was governor of the province surrounding Seoul and bordering the North, does not seem likely to cost him the upcoming election.
Rightists, highly divided as to whom to nominate against Lee, are smoldering with rage over his renaissance. Amid the turmoil, acting President Han Duck-soo, who has served as prime minister, economics minister and trade minister as well as ambassador to Washington, is keeping a steady hand on the tiller, even though the Minju-dominated National Assembly voted to impeach him shortly after impeaching Yoon. Thankfully Korea’s constitutional court threw out Han’s impeachment before agreeing unanimously to get rid of Yoon.
Meanwhile, the ministers Yoon appointed to his conservative government are battling Trump’s tariffs and his misbegotten notion of linking them to the costs of keeping America’s 28,500 troops in Korea. Having failed during his first term to get South Korea to pay $5 billion a year for U.S. forces, Trump is sure to demand far more than the $1.1 billion that former President Biden wound up agreeing on.
Headlined a “nosedive,” a “tailspin” and a “bloodbath,” the precipitous drop in global stock markets after Trump said he was jacking up tariffs to unprecedented levels was far more than a one-day sensation. Trump’s subsequent decision to suspend huge increases for all countries except China in the face of worldwide protests may postpone — but hardly halts — the chaos the world faces as he goes on trying to enforce tough bargains.
China, America’s rival in the contest for regional power, is digging in for a long-term trade war, while America’s northeast Asian allies, Japan and South Korea, along with the independent island province of Taiwan, look for a viable accommodation with Trump in his drive to wipe out enormous trade imbalances. Korea’s quest for a new deal with Trump’s America is complicated by the struggle that leaves the country without a leader entrusted with setting policy long-range.
Acting President Han would appear eminently qualified to talk over solutions, but he’s not able to make a real deal while the leftist opposition salivates over the chance to take over. Trump has agreed to exempt smart phones and computers from reciprocal tariffs, but considering that Korea’s trade surplus with the U.S. last year was $60.2 billion, he won’t yield easily to pleas for mercy. U.S. troops and bases will be cards to play in the bargaining game.
Lost in the deluge of propaganda is any reference to China’s stupendous surplus of $270.48 billion last year in trade with the U.S. Ironically, Taiwan, population 24 million, has profited far more per capita than the mainland, population 1.4 billion, in warding off tariffs that could undermine Washington’s commitment to defend the island. President William Lai has said Taiwan won’t retaliate against skyrocketing tariffs on exports that gave the island a surplus of $67.48 billion with the U.S. last year, and he promises to “explore countermeasures” in a quest for a “zero-for-zero” deal.
Uncertainty, however, prevails. For Korea, the danger of Trumpian tariffs deepens the gap between far right and far left. The rightists, still waving American and Korean flags at mass protests, are convinced that Trump will forever be on their side against the communist North. They can’t believe that Trump, eager for a reunion with his old friend, North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un, with whom he “fell in love” at their first summit in Singapore in June 2018, might gladly cooperate with Lee, the South’s likeliest next president, who also wants to renew talks with Kim.
Rightists and Trump are in complete accord, however, in their hostility toward China. Echoing Trump’s charge of the “stolen” 2020 presidential election, the rightists accuse China of rigging elections last year that gave the Minju its grip over the assembly, which Yoon accuses of blocking all he wanted to do as president. In this cauldron of conflict, Yoon, his former defense minister and about 20 others face trial for “insurrection” for staging the abortive coup. The trial of Yoon opened on Monday, pouring fuel on the embers that could burst into an explosion long before Kim Jong Un makes good on his threats to nuke the South.
Donald Kirk has been a journalist for more than 60 years, focusing much of his career on conflict in Asia and the Middle East, including as a correspondent for the Washington Star and Chicago Tribune. He is currently a freelance correspondent covering North and South Korea, and is the author of several books about Asian affairs.
