The following is an excerpt from “Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine“:
It remains uncertain whether Trump has learned from his experience as president the last time around. Personnel is policy, as they say, and Trump seems to be as reliant on hawks as ever. As this book goes to press, President-elect Trump has announced that his former CIA director and secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, will not be joining him in the new administration, nor will his former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, nor son-in-law Jared Kushner. This is very good news. Unfortunately, he also named the hawkish New York Congresswoman Elise Stefanik for UN ambassador, and the absolutely horrible Ukraine war supporter Rep. Mike Waltz — who signed on with Liz Cheney to stop Trump from leaving Afghanistan, and supports conscripting young girls into the military — to be national security adviser.
In an absolute betrayal of his pretensions toward an America First foreign policy, Trump named the avowedly interventionist Senator Marco Rubio who has supported every single horrible thing that he possibly could since joining the legislature, to be his secretary of state. Trump’s enemy, the Russiagate theorist and avowed war hawk, former Representative Adam Kinzinger, said he thought Rubio was a “good choice.”
Trump then named Fox News host Pete Hegseth — an Iraq and Afghan war veteran who has supported the war in Ukraine in the past, claiming “the future of America and the Western world” were on the line there — as his nominee for secretary of defense. On the bright side, Hegseth is an avowed supporter of the Defend the Guard campaign, the most crucial part of the American antiwar movement. Led by great War on Terrorism-era combat veterans at BringOurTroopsHome.us, the Defend the Guard movement is pushing for 50 state laws forbidding the president from nationalizing guard forces to use in violent overseas conflict without an official declaration of war from the Congress. To have a supporter in the Defense Secretary’s office is a potentially huge advance for non-interventionism, even if it just means he would withhold the generals the Pentagon has sent out to the state legislatures to try to stop it over the previous few years.
Trump also announced his nomination of former DNI John Ratcliff to run the CIA. Ratcliff, a Trump loyalist who came from the House of Representatives, revealed the “Clinton Plan Intelligence,” on the origins of Russiagate, as Special Counsel John Durham labeled it, which upset so many FBI investigators when they were finally told about it. Career agency officers told CNN they were pleased at the choice.
The president-elect also named Tulsi Gabbard for director of national intelligence, which is very good news. She is clearly serious about forging a new long-term peace with Russia and China, and while a hawk when it comes to the bin Ladenites, we know that she will certainly never take their side. And at least President Trump will have an honest assessment of the truth, without simply being prisoner to the permanent bureaucracy’s claims.
What these appointments reveal about Trump’s future foreign policy, especially in Europe, is hard to predict. There were certainly credentialed and credible America First non-interventionists who could have taken those roles. One may wonder whether Trump has ever heard their names before, or if they will have a chance to take important roles in his new administration. The fate of our country may depend on it.
Shortly after the 2024 election, Trump’s staff began talking about potential solutions to the war in Ukraine. There had also been no word yet on any plans Biden might have to bring up the dead-letter Logan Act to threaten Trump with more lawfare for getting elected while refuting his policy. Calling for a Christmas Truce could get him impeached again.
Americans must loudly support efforts to end this war now. The War Party must not get away with “reining him in” on Russia policy for a second time.
Rogue Statist?
Could Trump make peace? Anything is possible. He has a famously personal negotiating style, having almost achieved a deal with the DPRK’s Kim Jong-un based on mutual trust built up between the two. To Washington’s imperial court, the very possibility represents a threat to the future of the war they wish to see continue — even though they all know victory for Ukraine is impossible and that their leverage is decreasing with each passing day.
With much luck, Trump will be resentful enough against his establishment enemies to actually make an effort to keep them off his National Security Council this time, and make peace.
Scott Horton is director of the Libertarian Institute, editorial director of Antiwar.com, author of “Enough Already: Time to End the War on Terrorism” and the forthcoming “Provoked: How America Started the New Cold War With Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine.”
