California’s cities may only receive about 5 percent of the water deliveries they have requested this year, with dry and warm conditions expected to persist through the winter, state officials announced on Monday.
The California Department of Water Resources said that its initial supply forecast is based on current reservoir storage levels and conservative precipitation projections for the months to come.
“Based on long-range forecasts and the possibility of a La Nina year, the State Water Project is planning for a dry 2025 punctuated by extreme storms like we’ve seen in late November,” Karla Nemeth, director of the Department of Water Resources, said in a statement.
The State Water Project, a storage system that serves about 27 million residents and 750,000 acres of farmland, spans about two-thirds the length of California. Although 29 public agencies and water districts have long-term delivery contracts with the project, supplies available each year vary based on rainfall, snowpack, runoff and reservoir levels.
The Department of Water Resources stressed that its initial forecast did not account for a series of storms that brought rainfall to Northern California in early November. But prior to those events, the agency noted, the season had been warm and lacked any substantial precipitation.
Citing “record heat this summer and in early October that parched the landscape,” Nemeth also stressed that the overly dry soil may not be able to sufficiently absorb runoff from snowpack.
Meanwhile, meteorologists have also projected that this could be a La Niña phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation weather phenomenon. During La Niña years, the southern U.S. — including much of California — typically endures dryer, hotter conditions.
“We need to prepare for any scenario, and this early in the season we need to take a conservative approach to managing our water supply,” Nemeth said. “Our wettest months of the season are still to come.”
