Updated Saturday 9:30 a.m. ET
A Tropical Disturbance worth watching is trudging west in the eastern tropical Atlantic south of the Cabo Verde Islands. The atmosphere over that part of the ocean is still covered in Saharan dust, and drier air has penetrated from the north. As a result, development of the disturbance is expected to be slow for the next few days, at least.
Around next Tuesday or Wednesday, the various computer forecasts indicate that atmospheric conditions will become more conducive for development. The National Hurricane Center gives the disturbance a medium chance of developing into at least a tropical depression next week.
The National Hurricane Center gives the area to watch a medium chance of development over the next week.
(Bryan Norcross / NOAA)
Notice that their potential development area is quite large. The computer forecasts don’t agree on when the system will develop a circulation, but the consensus is reasonably high that it will. A significant percentage of the model forecasts show the disturbance eventually becoming a hurricane.
There is strong agreement that the system will lift north as it heads in the general direction of the Caribbean over the next several days. The uncertainty arrives late next week. A number of the computer forecasts turn likely Tropical Storm or Hurricane Gabrielle harmlessly into the middle of the Atlantic. But others trap it under a blocking high-pressure cell and track it precariously close to the northeastern Caribbean islands.
As is usually the case, how quickly the system intensifies will likely affect how soon it turns to the north. The jet stream is more likely to scoop up a stronger system.
Satellite image of tropical disturbance in Atlantic.
(Bryam Norcross / NOAA)
Nothing is going to happen fast. If the storm were to affect the islands, it would be next weekend on the current schedule. Everybody in Puerto Rico and the northeast Caribbean should stay in touch with the forecasts this week.
In the long long range, a dip in the jet stream might protect the U.S. East Coast by deflecting the system north week after next. But, of course, nothing is 100% certain that far in the future.
Nothing else looks imminent in the Atlantic, but of course, we stay vigilant this time of year.
