The Ravens were able to finally put a tally in the win column after a hard-fought road win at Dallas in Week 3.
Now they head back home to host the undefeated Bills on Sunday night in a matchup between two AFC contenders.
Can the Ravens get back to .500 after a slow start, or will Buffalo extend its winning streak to four games?
Let’s break down the matchup and provide our best bets:
VS. SPREAD
Despite being 3-0 and averaging a league-high 37.3 points per game, the Bills enter this matchup as 2.5-point road underdogs.
Let’s start by breaking down the Ravens’ defense, which has not looked nearly as solid as it did last season, a testament to the job that former defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald did in Baltimore. Last season, the Ravens had Pro Football Focus’ second-highest-graded defense (89.8) and held opponents to just 16.2 points (fewest in NFL) on the fourth-fewest total yards per game.
Nevertheless, through the first three weeks, they have the 10th-highest-graded defense (69.0) and are allowing the ninth-most points per game. Their run defense is the league’s best after three weeks, with opponents averaging just 2.8 yards per carry.
The biggest issue for the Ravens, however, has been the secondary, which poses a problem against a Bills team that just hung 47 points on Jacksonville.
Buffalo should be aggressive offensively out of the gate, putting pressure on the Ravens to keep pace. When they get down early, the Ravens have to abandon their rush-first identity in lieu of a pass-heavy offense just to get back in games. And that won’t fly against this Bills team.
Stat to know: Allen has a career mark of 17-9 ATS in his first four games of the season, and just 37-38-5 ATS in Game 5 or later.
Pick: Bills +2.5 (-110, Caesars)
TOTAL POINTS
The sportsbooks are expecting a relatively high-scoring game, with a consensus total of 46.5 points.
Buffalo has been fantastic running the ball this season, but it is going up against PFF’s third-highest-graded run defense, thus would much rather keep the ball in Josh Allen’s hands as much as possible.
The Bills’ game plan will be for Allen to make plays against a Baltimore secondary that has not yet proven it can stop elite — or even above-average — offensive units.
Despite not throwing the ball much in their first two games, Allen has still managed to rank second in big-time throws and big-time throw rate, and seventh in adjusted completed percentage, per PFF.
Betting on the NFL?
He has done all of that without his top two receivers from last year’s team, Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. A lack of skill position talent in Buffalo is no longer the concern it once was.
The over gets a slight lean here.
Stat to know: The Bills and Ravens have combined to average 14.5 more points per game (61) than this matchup’s total (46.5).
Pick: Over 46.5 points (-110, DraftKings)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Andrew Norton handicaps the NBA, WNBA, NFL, college basketball and football, UFC and golf. During the 2022-23 NBA season, he achieved a standout 14.1% ROI, cashing 60% of his NBA spread picks and leading Tallysight in its SportsIQ metric.
