Baltimore County residents identify public safety as a top priority in every county poll, and they report feeling unsafe in their neighborhoods. Given the data, one has to ask: Why is that? Indeed, as with nationwide trends, the county has become safer in recent years, with violent crime falling 2.6% since 2023. This rate covers homicides, aggravated assaults, robberies and rapes. Homicides alone have dropped to their lowest level in a decade, including a 47% decline since 2021. And reported rapes and car thefts are down 26% and 19%, respectively, year over year.
So why the disconnect? The reason is largely due to “availability bias,” a mental shortcut that causes people to recall and emphasize high-profile events in evaluating situations like their safety. Certain crimes, particularly those involving violence or youth, dominate headlines and social media — and amplify a false narrative of escalating danger. Political rhetoric tends to weaponize this fear, cementing the perception of a county under siege. We need look no further than the relatively recent Towson mass shooting and the attempted mall carjacking as examples.
This perception of danger matters because perception becomes reality. When people believe their neighborhoods are unsafe, even if this is contrary to data, there can be very real consequences — disinvestment and abandonment, distrust among neighbors and a breaking of community bonds that define our sense of place (and make us “us”). This may be a contributing factor to Baltimore County’s first population loss in 100 years.
So, what do we do about it? First, we lead with data. To his credit, former County Executive Johnny Olszewski built a data-based performance management system called BCSTAT. We should fully prioritize this system and make it the fulcrum of our crime fight. And we should use it not just to collect and report data, but to drive an intensely proactive strategy that increases transparency, forces collaboration internally and externally, and improves our decision-making and tactics. We should then assess these decisions and hold ourselves accountable for them.
Second, we must recognize that an outsized portion of violent crime in the county is caused by a relatively small number of repeat offenders. Every precinct captain knows who these offenders are. At a time when the federal government would have us focus on certain populations over others (even though all research shows that immigrants are no more dangerous than native-born Americans), we must be led by the data and aggressively apprehend and prosecute repeat offenders. This includes targeting violent cross-jurisdictional crime by partnering with law enforcement counterparts, using joint task forces and embedding county officers with other agencies and vice versa (which will also improve information and intelligence sharing).
Third, we must provide effective interventions for at-risk youth and young adult offenders who can still turn away from a life of crime. This means supporting programs for neighborhoods like “community schools” and “Patty Centers” that help stabilize families — and leveraging restorative justice practices in those schools. It also means supporting programs for individual youth like Roca and the Choice Program at UMBC that provide long-term, intensive wraparound services and interventions. We should never criminalize children.
Fourth, we must fully leverage gun crime intelligence to rapidly apprehend violent offenders and dismantle criminal networks. We must ensure police recover all firearms and shell casings from crime scenes (and have the resources to do so), trace all firearms and enter all recovered casings into the national ballistics database without delay — regardless of whether they were recovered from a homicide, nonfatal shooting or a “victimless” crime scene. The impact of this intelligence on real-time lead generation cannot be overstated.
The same is true for untraceable ghost guns and machine-gun conversion devices, such as Glock switches, which turn semi-automatic pistols into fully automatic weapons. These types of weapons can be easily acquired through cheap 3D printing and other means. The county has seen a 57% year-over-year increase in the recovery of ghost guns. We must stay ahead of emerging technological threats through collaboration with other law enforcement agencies and regular training and updates to local protocols.
Finally, and critically, we must have a singular focus on recruiting and retaining highly qualified police officers. Baltimore County has over 200 vacancies in the police department and expects several hundred more officers will retire in the next 18 months. We must improve pay, shore up benefits and make essentials (like housing) more affordable. We must also prioritize our partnership with citizen resources, such as our county Police Accountability Board, Equitable Policing Work Group and Work Group on Sexual Exploitation, Violence and Domestic Abuse.
Ultimately, if we are going to continue to reduce crime and bridge the divide between perception and reality, it must start with trust. Public safety is not just about lagging stats and crime reports; it is about ensuring communities are seen and heard, developing proactive strategies to meet their needs and providing police with the right tools and protocols to execute on them. We must build a platform for collaboration where residents, police and policymakers have hard conversations and make decisions with urgency and precision. Public safety is a shared responsibility.
Nick Stewart ([email protected]) is a partner at the law firm Duane Morris LLP and the cofounder of the good governance advocacy group We The People — Baltimore County. He also served in the Prince George’s County State’s Attorney’s Office, where he prosecuted a range of cases as a Rule 19 prosecutor.
