HOUSTON – Wednesday marks the statistical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, but you wouldn’t know it by looking at weather maps.
Forecasters aren’t tracking any disturbances, and there are a few reasons.
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According to a discussion issued Tuesday by the experts at Colorado State University (CSU), dry air and increased wind shear coupled with sinking air over Africa is likely leading to a quiet stretch of weather in the tropical Atlantic.
“We do anticipate the season picking up, however, given that large-scale conditions appear to become more tropical cyclone-favorable later in September,” CSU experts wrote in the report.
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FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross agrees. He noted in his blog Tuesday that attention will turn to the western Caribbean and the southern Gulf in a couple of weeks.
That’s where fronts that are becoming more frequent as the seasons change die and stir up tropical trouble this time of year. It happens through the extra lift and spin that these decaying fronts provide over areas of very warm water, leading to the development of low-pressure systems.
“As we saw last year with the development of hurricanes Helene and Milton, some years the important storms don’t come from the tropical Atlantic,” Norcross said. “Strong hurricanes can and do develop close to home in late September and October.”
There were 12 named storms that developed after Sept. 10, 2024. The season ended with Sara in mid-November.
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The remnants of a home are seen in Lake Lure, North Carolina, October 2, 2024, after the passage of Hurricane Helene.
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Workers, community members, and business owners clean up debris in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene in Marshall, North Carolina on Monday, Sept. 30, 2024.
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A local police car is seen half engulfed in mud, in a flooded area of Lake Lure, North Carolina, October 2, 2024, after the passage of Hurricane Helene.
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MANASOTA KEY, FLORIDA – OCTOBER 12: A home along the Gulf of Mexico is seen after it was destroyed when Hurricane Milton passed through the area on October 12, 2024, in Manasota Key, Florida. People continue recovering following the storm that made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane in the Siesta Key area of Florida, causing damage and flooding throughout Central Florida. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)
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A drone image shows the dome of Tropicana Field which has been torn open due to Hurricane Milton in St. Petersburg, Florida, on October 10, 2024.
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Damage from Hurricane Milton occurs in Punta Gorda, Florida, on October 12, 2024. Hurricane Milton makes landfall near Siesta Key, Florida, on Wednesday night as a Category 3 storm. Officials confirm that at least 23 people die from the storm. Milton moves across the Florida peninsula on Thursday and over the Atlantic Ocean. More than 1.3 million customers are without power in Florida on Saturday, according to a utility tracker. (Photo by Thomas O’Neill/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
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Where do storms usually form in September?
An analysis of Atlantic hurricane history shows that September is usually open season for development in just about every region of the basin, especially in the Gulf and from the Southeast coast, through the northern Caribbean and into the tropical Atlantic.
Storms become much more homegrown by the time October arrives.
WHERE TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES TYPICALLY OCCUR DURING EACH MONTH OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON
This map shows where tropical cyclone activity tends to occur during September. The data are shown as the combined number of tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes whose centers pass within 125 miles of a point on the map during a 100-year period.
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It only takes one
Experts reminded people who live along the coast that it only takes one storm to cause major problems. Residents are urged to remain vigilant despite the lull.
The next name on the Atlantic list is Gabrielle, followed by Humberto, Imelda and Jerry.
Hurricane season runs until Nov. 30.
Download the FOX Weather app to follow everything that happens during hurricane season.
HOW TO PREPARE FOR HURRICANE SEASON
An overview of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season as of Sept. 10, 2025.
