The recent set of battleground state surveys for The Hill conducted through Oct. 8 is a clear window into the tense and turbulent world of presidential politics.
The contest is just as close as it was in September, with Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump locked in a statistical tie in all seven states. Intense political polarization has frozen the electorate which is a clear indication that we may be in a nail baiter on election night.
The Democratic nominee must carry the weight of her association with Joe Biden. His approval rating is underwater in all seven states. But Democratic contenders in statewide races have big leads in three of the states and slim advantages in three others. There is no statewide race this year in battleground Georgia.
The economy is the dominant area of concern in six of the seven states. The only exception is Arizona, where immigration leads the way. Democrats should pay attention to the fact that concern about finances is substantially higher than worries about abortion and democracy.
Here is my ranked regional lay of the land in the electoral combat zone with just more than two weeks left before Nov. 5.
- Southeast 32 Electoral Votes-North Carolina 16 EVs and Georgia 16 EVs
Who would have thought that the largest and most important regional battleground would be in confines of the Old Confederacy? A surging African-American voter population and a growing class of white professionals make these Southeastern states the prime time target for the vice president to meet and greet the electorate.
Both states were battered by Hurricane Helene, so it’s not surprising that the disaster intensified concerns about the economy in the Southeast. Voter assessments of the Biden administration’s efforts to deal with the human suffering and economic devastation from the storm will be key here.
Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) is the highest rated governor in battleground America, so he should be an asset to Trump, even though the two men have an on-again-off-again relationship. The sudden implosion of GOP gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson’s effort in North Carolina could drag Trump down in the Tarheel State.
- Midwest 25 Electoral Votes-Michigan 15 EVs and Wisconsin 10 EVs
The battle for the White House and the upper house of Congress could be settled in the Midwest. The presidential and senatorial races are extremely tight in both states.
Both Democratic Senate contestants, Rep. Elise Slotkin in Michigan and Sen. Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, have slim advantages over their Republican opponents, former Rep. Mike Rogers and businessman Eric Hovde. While Democratic Senate candidates in the Southwest cruise, Democratic contenders within the Big Blue Wall are struggling.
Both vice presidential candidates, Democratic Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Republican Ohio Sen. JD Vance, have roots in the Midwest. Their nominations underscore the political priority that the two presidential candidates attach to this region.
- Pennsylvania-19 Electoral Votes
Pennsylvania is big and broad enough to constitute its own region. It is the key to the kingdom with more electoral votes than any other single swing state.
East is East and West is West and never the twain shall meet. But the Keystone State is the place where East meets Midwest. It’s two states for the price of one, stretching from the Philadelphia area on the East Coast all away to Pittsburgh, the gateway to the Midwest.
The state has a popular Democratic governor, Josh Shapiro, who came close to being his party’s vice presidential nominee. It also has an embattled Democratic Senate incumbent, Bob Casey Jr. who is fighting to continue the legacy of his father, the former governor.
- Southwest-17 Electoral Votes-Arizona 11 EVs and Nevada 6 EVs
The two Southwestern battleground states only possess a total of 17 votes in the Electoral College, but this dynamic duo has outsized influence because of the tight battle for the White House and the U.S. Senate.
Abortion isn’t a big consideration in any of the swing states but could be a factor nevertheless in the Southwest. It is on the ballot in both states, and popular support for the ballot propositions could be a big boost for Harris.
Both Democratic Senate candidates are riding high and in better shape than any of their partisan counterparts in the other battlegrounds. Nevada Sen. Jacky Rosen and Arizona Rep. Ruben Gallego have significant edges over their Republican opponents, Sam Brown, and Kari Lake. MAGA extremism has revived Democratic fortunes in this region.
But Arizona is the only key state where immigration trumps the economy as the biggest issue priority. Republican dominance on that issue could be the decisive factor here for Trump.
The seven swing states have 93 electoral votes, only one-third of the 270 needed to win the presidency.
That’s why campaign ads fall from the airwaves and the internet like a thick blanket of autumn leaves in the large media markets that cover the swing states which will choose the next president of the United States of America.
Brad Bannon is a Democratic pollster, CEO of Bannon Communications Research which polls for Democrats, labor unions and progressive issue groups. He hosts the popular progressive podcast on power, politics and policy, Deadline D.C. with Brad Bannon.
