The ECMWF long-range forecast models suggest the strongest El Niño ever is likely to form by November. While an El Niño year typically means less tropical activity in the Atlantic, all chances are not lost, as the model shows above-average ocean temperatures for the duration of hurricane season.
The latest long-range European forecast shows there’s a 100% chance of a super El Niño, potentially suppressing hurricane activity and making for a wetter fall and winter in the southern U.S.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) issued their May long-range forecast model, which ups the chances of the strongest El Niño ever hitting by November.
EXCLUSIVE ANALYSIS: EL NIÑO LIKELY TO BOOST HURRICANE ACTIVITY IN EASTERN PACIFIC THIS SUMMER
Back in March, data only reached through September, when there was only about a 55% chance of reaching the Super El Niño threshold.
(FOX Weather)
The FOX Forecast Center said an El Niño of this caliber being predicted so early means it could be an event to look back on for years to come.
Typically, a strong El Niño like this one would mean suppressed hurricane activity in the Atlantic, and increased activity in the Eastern Pacific.
EL NIÑO AND HURRICANE SEASON: WHAT IT MEANS AND HOW SIMILAR CIRCUMSTANCES HAVE PLAYED OUT
Infrared satellite image shows Category 5 Hurricane Otis approaching Acapulco on Oct. 24, 2023.
(RAAM-B / CIRA / FOX Weather)
However, the ECMWF isn’t yet showing a strong decrease in hurricane forecast numbers for the season, making it possible that the strongest El Niño effects may not be felt until later into the season.
The latest forecast calls for 13 named storms and 6 hurricanes. The average in a season is 14 named storms and 7 hurricanes, according to the FOX Forecast Center.
(FOX Weather)
Near the U.S. Mainland, the ECMWF shows near-normal activity and above-average precipitation in the northern Gulf.
The forecast also shows Atlantic water temperatures rising to above average for most of the season.
EL NIÑO EXPECTED TO DRIVE ATLANTIC STORM ACTIVITY AS COUNTDOWN TO HURRICANE SEASON BEGINS
The forecast does, however, paint a picture of below-average tropical activity across most of the Atlantic Main Development Region. This essentially means that while El Niño is set to shut down the Atlantic tropics, it may not shut down all of it, the FOX Forecast Center said.
(FOX Weather)
Hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific begins on May 15. The Atlantic hurricane season follows on June 1.
Now that the forecast has been extended, models show above-average rain across the South.
The FOX Forecast Center expects that the winter months are likely to be beneficial for the Southeast, which is deep in drought.
