The winner of the Nobel Prize in Physics has issued a stark warning to humanity, saying it could face an existential catastrophe within roughly 35 years.
David Gross, who shared the 2004 Nobel Prize in Physics, warned that ‘due to the danger of nuclear war,’ humankind may have just a little more than three decades left.
‘Even after the Cold War ended, when we had strategic arms control treaties, all of which have disappeared, there were estimates that there was a one percent chance of nuclear war every year,’ he told Live Science.
‘I feel it’s not a rigorous estimate that the chances are more likely two percent. So that’s a one-in-50 chance every year.
‘The expected lifetime, in the case of two percent per year, is about 35 years.’
The calculation is based on equations similar to those used to estimate the half-life of radioactive materials, which model the probability of an event occurring over time.
‘Things have gotten so much worse in the last 30 years, as you can see every time you read the newspaper,’ Gross added, pointing to renewed nuclear threats, the war in Europe, escalating tensions involving Iran and recent near-war conditions between India and Pakistan.
Gross won the Nobel Prize for discovering ‘asymptotic freedom,’ the idea that the strong nuclear force holding atoms together weakens as quarks, tiny subatomic particles, move closer together, much like a rubber band that tightens only when pulled apart.
The winner of the Nobel Prize in Physics has issued a stark warning to humanity, saying it could face an existential catastrophe within roughly 35 years
In the interview with Live Science, Gross also highlighted that there have been no major nuclear arms-control treaties signed in the past 10 years.
‘There are now nine nuclear powers. Even three is infinitely more complicated than two,’ he said.
The last surviving US-Russia nuclear treaty expired on February 5, 2026.
The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), signed in 2010, is due to end on February 5. It marks the eighth agreement between the two nations since the 1963 treaty that banned nuclear tests in the atmosphere, outer space and underwater.
Gross also pointed to the rise of AI, which adds more risks to humanity’s existence.
‘The agreements, the norms between countries, are all falling apart,’ he said.
‘Weapons are getting crazier. Automation, and perhaps even AI, will be in control of those instruments pretty soon.’
The physicist also referenced the famous question posed by physicist Enrico Fermi, often summarized as ‘Where are all the civilizations?,’ suggesting that advanced societies may ultimately destroy themselves before achieving long-term survival.
David Gross, who shared the 2004 Nobel Prize in Physics, warned that ‘due to the danger of nuclear war ,’ humankind may have just a little more than three decades left
You asked me to think about the future, and I am obsessed the last few years, thinking about that, not the future of ideas and understanding nature, but of the survival of humanity,’ he said.
Gross also expressed concern about the increasing role of automation and artificial intelligence in military systems, warning that future decision-making could be placed in the hands of machines operating at speeds beyond human control.
‘It’s going to be very hard to resist making AI make decisions because it acts so fast,’ he said, adding that military leaders facing extremely short decision windows may be tempted to rely on automated systems.
However, he warned that artificial intelligence systems are not foolproof.
‘If you play with AI, you know that it sometimes hallucinates,’ Gross said, referring to the technology’s known tendency to generate inaccurate outputs.
Despite the risks, Gross said history shows that public awareness and scientific warnings can lead to change, pointing to the global response to climate change as an example.
‘We made them; we can stop them,’ he said, referring to nuclear weapons.
