The University of Arizona’s forecast for the 2026 hurricane season predicts an above-average season. The school said the high sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic are why early forecasts show above average activity, though NOAA said a super El Niño is possible through the summer and into peak hurricane season.
With the Atlantic hurricane season almost 50 days away, early long-range forecasts are coming out, with forecasters giving their predictions on what the season will look like.
The University of Arizona is one player in the game, predicting an above-average Atlantic hurricane season.
NOAA said an El Niño is likely to form by June, when the Atlantic hurricane season begins.
‘SUPER EL NIÑO’ BREWING AS LA NIÑA FADES AHEAD OF PEAK HURRICANE SEASON
In the past, El Niño years meant less tropical activity in the Atlantic, and more activity in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
(FOX Weather)
El Niño describes warmer conditions in the Pacific, and for hurricane season, that generally means increasing hostile winds that act to prevent the development of tropical systems over the Atlantic. And taken in a vacuum, the stronger the El Niño event, the more storm development is inhibited.
The University of Arizona began issuing hurricane season forecasts in 2014, initially in June at the start of the season. In 2022, the university introduced an April version of the forecast.
HERE’S WHY ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON RUNS FROM JUNE TO NOVEMBER
Hurricane Kiko on Sept. 4, 2025.
(CIRA / RAAM-B / NOAA)
In 2014, they only forecast hurricanes. Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) and major hurricanes were added in 2017, and the total number of named storms was added in 2019.
This year, the university predicts 20 named storms, with nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes at Category 3 or higher.
(FOX Weather)
They use a dynamic model to simulate the atmosphere, along with a machine learning model to analyze past hurricane season patterns.
Since they began issuing forecasts for the total number of named storms in 2020, their April forecasts have verified more accurately than other early-season predictions.
LA NIÑA DEAD, NEUTRAL CONDITIONS TAKE OVER IN PACIFIC AS EL NIÑO BECOMES INCREASINGLY LIKELY
For 2026, the University of Arizona’s model predicts very high sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic. They expect this to offset the impacts of El Niño’s strong upper-level winds across the basin.
(FOX Weather)
The Colorado State University early season prediction forecasts a slightly below-average season with 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major Category 3+ storms.
During an average Atlantic hurricane season, there are 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes, according to the FOX Forecast Center.
Stay tuned to FOX Weather as hurricane season approaches for more hurricane forecasting.
