If you ask female millennials about the three words they dread, you’ll probably hear a lot of them say ‘low–rise jeans‘.
But these early–2000s staples are making a comeback, alongside classic items like baby tees, oversized belts, and even bandage dresses.
Now, a study has revealed why this is the case.
According to mathematicians from Northwestern University, fashion trends repeat themselves on a 20–year cycle.
For the study, the team analysed roughly 37,000 images of women’s clothing from 1869 to today.
Their results revealed how styles rise in popularity, fall out of favour, and then experience a revival roughly every two decades.
‘Over time, this constant push to be different from the recent past causes styles to swing back and forth,’ said Professor Daniela Abras, co–author of the study.
‘The system intrinsically wants to oscillate, and we see those cycles in the data.’
If you ask female millennials about the three words they dread, you’ll probably hear a lot of them say ‘low–rise jeans’. But these early–2000s staples are making a comeback
This ’20–year–rule’ has long been cited by fashion insiders.
For example, in both 1985 and 2005, denim jackets, high–waisted jeans, and leg warmers were the height of women’s fashion.
Meanwhile, band T–shirts, choker necklaces, and Doc Martens were the must–have items of 1990 and 2010.
More recently, low–rise jeans, baby tees, oversized belts and bandage dresses have had a resurgence, having originally been popular back in 2006.
In their new study, the team set out to understand whether or not there’s any truth to the 20–year rule.
‘To our knowledge, this is the first time that someone developed such an extensive and precise database of fashion measures across more than a century,’ said co–author, Emma Zajdela said.
The team analysed 37,000 images of women’s garments, using custom tools to measure key features like hemline, neckline, and waistline positions.
Their analysis revealed a ‘striking pattern’.
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The so-called ’20–year–rule’ has long been cited by fashion insiders, with trends like leg warmers repeating on themselves
The team analysed 37,000 images of women’s garments, using custom tools to measure key features like hemline, neckline, and waistline positions
While fashion trends evolve gradually over time, the popularity of styles follows a two–decade cycle.
One of the clearest patterns, the researchers explain, involves the length of the hemline on dresses.
In the 1920s, we saw the rise of flapper dresses with short hemlines.
Fast–forward to the 1950s, and more conservative styles took over – before miniskirts returned in the late–1960s.
However, the researchers point out that this pattern has lost its clarity in recent decades.
From the 1980s, the data showed a wider range of skir lengths appearing at the same time – suggesting trends are becoming more fragmented.
‘In the past, there were two options – short dresses and long dresses,’ explained Ms Zajdela.
‘In more recent years, there are more options: really short dresses, floor–length dresses and midi dresses.
‘There is an increase in variance over time and less conformity.’
So, what does this mean for women’s trends in the future?
If we look at the 20–year cycle, we can predict the retro fashions that could soon make a resurgence.
In the year 2030, we could see a return to jeggings, leather jackets, and peplum tops, while the year 2040 could be defined by puff sleeves and tracksuits.
