A shot of extreme cold air is moving into Florida this weekend and with it comes a rare chance for snow along the Gulf Coast.
Areas from the Florida panhandle all the way down to the Fort Myers/Naples area could see snowflakes, though the chance is very low.
There is currently a 10 to 20% chance of snow flurries along the coast late Saturday night and into Sunday morning.
(FOX Weather)
A process similar to lake-effect snow, something called Gulf-effect snow, could produce narrow bands of light snow in this uncommon setup.
The nor’easter that is expected to impact several states along the East Coast this weekend is also setting the stage for a wave of unusually cold air that will reach deep into South Florida.
(FOX Weather)
On Saturday night, lingering moisture from the storm could mix with the bitter cold air and potentially create some flurries or a rain/snow mix along the Gulf Coast.
RARE DEEP FREEZE UNDERWAY IN FLORIDA AS INTENSIFYING BITTER BLAST EXTENDS AS FAR SOUTH AS MIAMI
It’s a rare phenomenon, and it’s not common in the area. Lake-effect snow forms when very cold arctic air moves over warmer water. The air just above the water warms slightly, rises quickly through the colder air above, forming clouds and producing snow downwind.
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Snow covers a Florida beach after a snowstorm.
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FILE – A snow plow clears a pathway from snow on February 9, 2025 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Scott Eisen/Getty Images)
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TALLAHASSEE, FLORIDA – JANUARY 22: A car drives on snow after snowfall on January 22, 2025 in Tallahassee, Florida. The National Weather Service has placed northern Florida under a winter storm warning and some are predicting the largest Gulf snow and ice storm in more than 100 years. (Photo by Miguel J. Rodriguez Carrillo/Getty Images)
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DENVER, CO – MARCH 15: Ezra Walker, 6, sleds down a hill outside his family’s home in the Clayton neighborhood in Denver, Colorado on Monday, March 15, 2021. Denverites dug out a day after a weekend snowstorm dumped snow across the area. (Photo by Patrick Traylor/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post via Getty Images)
( Patrick Traylor/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post)
In Florida, a “Gulf-effect” setup could happen if cold air moves over the relatively warmer Gulf waters. But for this to happen, there needs to be a long fetch of northwest winds picking up moisture, combined with a big enough difference between the water temperature and the cold air above.
This graphic shows temperatures expected in Tampa, Florida, over the weekend.
(FOX Weather / FOX Weather)
The larger the temperature difference, the faster the air rises, boosting the chance of snow.
The chance for a rain/snow mix on Saturday night is low, and any snow that does fall would likely melt immediately upon hitting the ground.
But it’s important to note that any snow along Florida’s Gulf Coast is rare, especially along the peninsula.
WHAT FACTORS GO INTO A SNOW DAY FOR SCHOOL DISTRICTS?
Historically, Tampa, Florida, has only recorded measurable snow twice: 0.2 inches on Jan. 19, 1977, and 0.1 inches on Feb. 13, 1899. Naples, Florida, which could also get flurries, has never recorded measurable snow.
While flurries have been spotted in Central Florida before, accumulating snow is exceptionally difficult due to the normally warm ground and Gulf waters.
