January 16, 2026
Talarico leads with Hispanic and white voters, winning 6 in 10 from each group. Meanwhile, 80 percent of Black Democratic primary voters are supporting Crockett.
New polling shows U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett trailing Texas state Rep. James Talarico in the Democratic Senate primary in Texas.
The Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey found Talarico is 9 points ahead among all likely primary voters, with 47% of the anticipated vote to Crockett’s 38%. Another 15% report being undecided.
Talarico and Crockett are vying for Sen. John Cornyn’s seat on the other side of the political aisle for the midterm election.
Since launching his Senate campaign bid, Talarico has raised more than $13 million. According to The Hill, Talarico leads with Hispanic and white voters, winning 6 in 10 from each group. Meanwhile, 80 percent of Black Democratic primary voters are supporting Crockett.
When breaking down the gender, men supported Talarico by 22 points. Women voters are split between the two Democrats.
Talarico is a former middle school teacher and a Presbyterian seminarian. He grew in popularity as one of several state Democrats who fled Texas to stall the state Republicans’ redistricting plans.
Crockett Behind In Polls
Crockett is a popular but controversial figure within her party who joined the race in December.
A University of Houston Hobby School poll from late September found Crockett leading the primary field against other senator hopefuls at 31%, but losing the general election matchup against each of the three Republican candidates.
Crockett said she believed in her own internal polling, particularly with turning out unlikely voters.
“I am very formidable, regardless of what people may want to put out into the atmosphere,” she said on MS Now. “The numbers are the numbers.”
Former Rep. Colin Allred dropped out of the race and is now running for a House seat following news of Crockett’s entry into the Senate race.
Either way, Democrats face an uphill battle in Texas. The state has not elected a Democrat for the U.S. Senate since 1988, when Lloyd Bentsen won re-election. The last time a Democrat represented Texas in the U.S. Senate was 1993, when Robert Krueger was appointed to replace Bentsen after he resigned to become U.S. Treasury Secretary.
If elected, Crockett would be the first Black woman and first person of color from Texas to serve in the Senate.
Texas’s Democratic Primary is March 3.
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