HONOLULU– The parade of tropical activity south of Hawaii is ironically enhancing the risk of wildfires across the Aloha State Friday as gusty winds combine with dry conditions.
Tropical Storm Iona and another tropical system passing hundreds of miles south of the islands on Friday, currently tagged as Invest 92C by the National Hurricane Center, were far enough away not to cause any direct impacts. But their low pressure centers, combined with a ridge of high pressure to the islands’ northeast and temperature inversion hovering over the island, creates a recipe for moderately strong winds.
GOES-18 Satellite image shows a tropical disturbance passing well south of Hawaii on Aug. 1, 2025.
(RAAM-B/CIRA / FOX Weather)
Wind gusts up to 40 mph are likely Friday along Oahu and Kauai, with gusts to 50 mph on Maui and the Big Island, especially in the leeward areas downwind of the islands’ vast terrain.
The winds will dry out as they blow down the mountain slopes, dropping relative humidity values into the 35-45% range, according to National Weather Service forecasts.
Hawaii Fire Weather Alerts
“A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and dry fuels can contribute to extreme fire behavior. Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly,” the National Weather Service in Honolulu said in issuing its Fire Weather Warnings through Friday evening.
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Thankfully, the setup is considerably weaker than the tropically-infused windstorm that triggered a devastating wildfire in Maui in August 2023 that killed 102 people. In that instance, winds were fueled by Category 4 Hurricane Dora that passed well south of the islands but triggered an intense pressure gradient.
Winds will gradually decrease from Sunday into Tuesday as the pressure differences relax and Iona and 92C move even farther away, getting the islands back to typical early summer weather.
(FOX Weather)
What will Gil do?
Forecasters are then keeping an eye on Tropical Storm Gil, which is currently churning well southeast of the islands in the very busy eastern Pacific Ocean. Forecast models indicate Gil will likely briefly reach hurricane status Friday, and continue its journey to the west/northwest into early next week in the general direction of Hawaii.
(FOX Weather)
TROPICAL STORM GIL STRENGTHENS IN BUSY PACIFIC BASIN
However, the relatively cool ocean waters surrounding Hawaii would prevent Gil from maintaining any kind of significant tropical potency if it approached the islands, and current projections from the NHC show Gil would have weakened to a tropical depression or less long before it reached the state. However, Gil’s remnants could bring some rain to the state if the system tracks close enough.
Behind Gil, there are two other areas the NHC has tagged as areas to watch for future tropical development, with the western one expected to reach at least tropical depression status by the end of the weekend, but it’s too early to know their ultimate fate.
