Germany‘s AfD has seen a late surge in support ahead of Sunday’s election, meaning the anti-immigration party is on track to becoming the main opposition in the country’s next parliament.
A poll published by German broadcaster ZDF revealed the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party had increased by one point to 21 per cent, while the SDP follows with 16 percent and the Greens with 14 percent – which were both unchanged.
‘We are seeing changes in many areas,’ ZDF election expert Stefan Leifert told Bild.
In the poll, named Politbarometer Extra, results also showed the CDU/CSU only received 28 per cent – which is two percentage points less than before, but means they are still in the lead.
With the far-right party tipped for second place, Germany political landscape has shifted dramatically, with AfD moving from the fringes to the centre of national debate.
As conservative leader Friedrich Merz is set to become Germany’s next chancellor following Sunday’s vote, the 2025 election will be remembered as the moment the AfD cemented itself as a major force in German politics.
The AfD, which began 12 years ago as a party of economists opposing eurozone bailouts, has transformed into a hardline nationalist movement, fuelled by anti-migrant sentiment and increasingly open to extremist elements, including neo-Nazis.
Alice Weidel, the party’s first-ever chancellor candidate, lashed out at Germany’s political elite during the campaign, blaming the ruling parties for ‘violating law and order’ by allowing migrants to cross into Germany.
A poll published by German broadcaster ZDF revealed the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party had increased by one point to 21 per cent. Pictured: Candidate for chancellor and leader of the AfD parliamentary group, Alice Weidel
Chancellor Olaf Scholz (l-r, SPD), Robert Habeck (Alliance 90/The Greens), Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Protection, Friedrich Merz, Union Chancellor candidate and CDU Federal Chairman, and Alice Weidel, AfD parliamentary group leader, take part in the Quadrell of the TV discussion on the federal election campaign in the studio on February 16, 2025 in Berlin, Germany
From left, Activists wearing masks of AfD top candidate for Chancellor Alice Weidel, Elon Musk, US President Donald Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin and US Vice President JD Vance, protest against the support of the US and Russia for the far-right AfD party in front of the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin, February 20, 2025
‘That began with the CDU and Angela Merkel and is continuing under the current government,’ Weidel said. ‘Anyone who points this out gets banished to the “right-wing” corner.’
Germany’s postwar identity, built with strong US support, was designed to prevent extremist parties like the AfD from gaining power.
But that firewall has been tested like never before.
High-profile endorsements from figures such as Tesla billionaire Elon Musk and US Vice President JD Vance, who met with AfD leaders in Munich last week, have only bolstered the party’s momentum.
Although mainstream parties continue to shun the AfD – which remains under surveillance for suspected extremism – it has succeeded in dominating the political conversation.
Analysis by Die Zeit found that even left-wing parties had adopted the AfD’s rhetoric, particularly on immigration and crime, sidelining key issues like the struggling economy, climate change, and European security threats.
AfD supporters, speaking to The Guardian on the campaign trail, pushed back against mass pro-democracy demonstrations that have risen against the party.
‘We are not Nazis,’ was a common refrain in far-right strongholds. However, terms like ‘remigration’ – code for mass deportations – have become commonplace among AfD leaders and voters.
Riding a wave of nationalist-populist victories across Europe – including in Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden, Austria, and Finland – the AfD expanded beyond its eastern strongholds into Germany’s western industrial heartlands, securing an estimated one in five votes.
As conservative leader Friedrich Merz is set to become Germany’s next chancellor following Sunday’s vote, the 2025 election will be remembered as the moment the AfD cemented itself as a major force in German politics
People attend an election campaign event of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in Heidenheim, Germany, February 9, 2025
Outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz, whose Social Democrats fell to third place in the polls, warned voters against backing the AfD, citing Germany’s postwar tradition of rejecting extremism
Despite Merz’s firm commitment to the so-called ‘firewall’ against cooperation with the far-right, the AfD’s rise is set to complicate coalition-building and legislative decisions, particularly on issues like budget allocations and immigration policy.
Outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz, whose Social Democrats fell to third place in the polls, warned voters against backing the AfD, citing Germany’s postwar tradition of rejecting extremism.
Weidel, appearing in a prime-time debate for the first time, called the comparisons to Germany’s Nazi past ‘scandalous.’
‘You can insult me all you want,’ she said, ‘but you are insulting millions of voters.’
Germany’s historical resistance to far-right politics was often attributed to deep-seated lessons from the Nazi era, reinforced through education and legal protections enshrined in the country’s constitution.
But Musk has backed AfD arguments that Germany must move past its historical guilt, claiming there is ‘too much focus’ on the Holocaust.
Experts point to 2015 as a turning point for the AfD, when Merkel’s decision to accept 1.3 million refugees – mainly from Syria and Afghanistan – sparked a backlash.
While many of those refugees have since integrated, critics argue that communities were left without the resources needed to support them, fuelling resentment among voters.
The issue came to a head during the election campaign, which was cut short after Scholz’s government collapsed in November following a series of deadly attacks blamed on asylum seekers.
Musk has backed AfD arguments that Germany must move past its historical guilt, claiming there is ‘too much focus’ on the Holocaust
Experts point to 2015 as a turning point for the AfD, when Merkel’s decision to accept 1.3 million refugees – mainly from Syria and Afghanistan – sparked a backlash
Despite his promise to uphold the firewall, Merz controversially accepted AfD support in parliament for tougher border controls after a series of violent incidents, including a mass stabbing and a car ramming at a Christmas market.
Merz’s move was widely viewed as a breach of taboo, yet it failed to pull AfD voters back to his own centre-right bloc, which remained stagnant at 30per cent despite Scholz’s record-low approval ratings.
‘The AfD seems to be the main winner from the prevailing pessimism in German society, driven by a bleak economic outlook,’ James Conran of Oxford University’s Blavatnik School of Government told the newspaper.
‘The big question is just how far to the right the country is about to shift.’
Weidel, who has two children with her same-sex partner, has revelled in the party’s growing ties to Trump’s Washington.
Vice President Vance denounced Germany’s firewall against the AfD as ‘undemocratic,’ while Musk has repeatedly attacked the party’s opponents.
With mainstream parties struggling to retain voter confidence, analysts warn they may only have a few years to prove they can address Germany’s deepening economic and social divisions – before the AfD takes an even stronger grip on power.
