Week 14’s Sunday action brought a continuation of a few recent trends: The Panthers pushed another contender to the limit, the Jets continued to falter late (but got a big statistical performance out of Aaron Rodgers), and Kirk Cousins struggled badly.
ONE HAND ARE YOU KIDDING ME @byronmurphy 😱😱
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— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) December 8, 2024
The Athletic NFL writers Mike Jones, Ted Nguyen and Dan Pompei share their thoughts on all of these storylines and more.
The Bills allowed 44 points in L.A. on Sunday. Considering their issues stopping Patrick Mahomes (and Joe Burrow) in recent postseasons, how much of a concern is that defensive performance?
Jones: Sunday’s performance — 44 points and 457 yards surrendered — raises eyebrows. But the Bills defense, while not regarded as a shutdown unit, is a quality unit. Entering Sunday, the Bills were third in the league with 24 takeaways, and they held opponents to 18.7 points per game, which is among the top 10. Yes, they got smacked up by Baltimore, who they’ll possibly face in the postseason, but we’ve also seen this unit play pretty well against the Chiefs. Mahomes had three passing touchdowns, but he did throw two interceptions and had only 196 yards. So the potential for them to be better than what we saw on Sunday certainly is there. The Rams are a potent team when healthy, and Buffalo ran into them, on the road, at a time when they’re trending upward. My panic meter isn’t running high for Buffalo.
Pompei: Mahomes is going to be a problem for any opponent in the postseason. But the Bills have the ability to outscore any opponent because Josh Allen is playing so well. What the Bills defense did Sunday looks like an aberration. For the season, Buffalo is allowing an average of 20.6 points per game, which indicates it has one of the better defensive units in the league. One week ago, the Bills held the 49ers to 10 points, and the 49ers put up 38 on a pretty good Bears defense Sunday. The Bills have a plus-129 point differential — that’s second-best in the NFL. It bodes well for their ability to compete with any team.
Nguyen: The Bills defense isn’t a suffocating unit but does enough to complement Josh Allen most weeks. They’re tough to read and figure out, but Matthew Stafford played as well as any quarterback in the league against them. (Having a punt blocked also doesn’t help.) The defense is only “fine.” I don’t think they’ll want to rely on that unit to keep teams under 20 in January. They have a defensive line full of good rushers but no ace, and sometimes they struggle to get home with four. They had to resort to blitzing Stafford on Sunday but their defensive backs couldn’t cover the Rams’ weapons. They just don’t have much talent on the back end, so they’re susceptible if a quarterback has time to throw.
If you are Raheem Morris, are you benching Kirk Cousins and turning to Michael Penix Jr.?
Nguyen: Yes. Cousins can’t move and he’s turning the ball over — six interceptions in the last two games. There’s nowhere else to go with him. The hope was that he could keep the Falcons competitive while they develop Penix into the quarterback of the future, but the Falcons are 6-7, and their offense has looked terrible during a four-game losing streak.
Sure, they still have a shot at winning the NFC South because it’s such a weak division, but they aren’t going anywhere. Penix is an older rookie and has had plenty of time to sit and learn the playbook. Give him experience. With four games against mediocre defenses left (Raiders, Giants, Commanders, Panthers), now is a good time to make a quarterback switch rather than being influenced by sunk-cost fallacy.
Jones: It’s hard to say because we haven’t seen Penix in practices. We have no idea what his command of the offense is, or what his decision making is like. If Penix is comfortable and can take care of the football, then you have to give him a shot. Maybe simplifying the offense and leaning more heavily on the run game, while also throwing in some new wrinkles that Penix’s athleticism can offer, could help spark an offense that hasn’t had a touchdown pass in four weeks and has eight interceptions during that span.
If Penix isn’t ready, then the Falcons have to roll with Cousins. And if that’s the case, I’m ramping up the rushing attack and working hard to keep him in more manageable situations in hopes that it helps Cousins make better decisions and take better care of the ball.
Pompei: There may be a jolt value in making a change, but it’s probably a stretch to think a player who has thrown five passes in the NFL can step into a playoff race and carry his team to a place that a veteran like Cousins cannot. Cousins is not playing well, but he’s always been a streaky performer who can go on a heater at any point. His experience is likely to be an asset in the final weeks of the season. Penix is completely unknown to the world outside the Falcons; their coaches and players have a better feel for his readiness. The only way Penix should be promoted is if Falcons players believe he gives them a better chance to win.
We know the Lions and Eagles are the class of the NFC. Do the Seahawks have a claim to being the conference’s third-best team?
Jones: They may take the third seed if they win their division, but I don’t view the Seahawks as the NFC’s third-best team. I like the Vikings, who are riding a six-game winning streak, own an 11-2 record and are more well-rounded. They are balanced on offense and have an ever-present home-run threat in Justin Jefferson. They also have an aggressive defense that has limited opponents to just 18.5 points per game, and because that defense ranks among the league leaders in takeaways, Minnesota is plus-8 in the turnover department. Seattle is minus-4 and is up and down offensively. I see Minnesota as having greater potential in the postseason.
Nguyen: The Seahawks are playing much better and their defense has made some huge improvements since acquiring Ernest Jones, but it’s hard to argue that they’re better than the Vikings or Packers, who have been consistently good all year. The Seahawks’ offensive line is a massive liability. Geno Smith has been excellent against pressure all season but it’s hard winning in the playoffs when your quarterback is under siege. Macdonald’s defense is going to give teams fits but I don’t think their offense can score consistently enough for me to feel better about them than I do about the Vikings or Packers.
Pompei: The third-best team in the NFC up to this point has to be the overlooked and disrespected Vikings, who have won six in a row and whose 11-2 record matches the Eagles. The Seahawks, to their credit, have won four straight. But they have three fewer victories than the Vikings. We will get a better feel for their legitimacy in the next two weeks when they play the Packers and Vikings. As for now, they belong in a clump that includes the Packers, Commanders, Bucs and Rams.
They’ve lost three straight games by inches, but there’s no doubt the Carolina Panthers are showing new life. How bullish are you on this team for 2025?
Pompei: They will have to do more than lose three close games to good teams to increase bullishness. Bad teams lose close games to good teams every week. Young’s improvement is heartening, but it will take much more than that for the Panthers, who have been one of football’s sorriest teams for two years, to make people think they can contend for a playoff spot in 2025. And many deservedly lack faith in their leadership. The Panthers need more talent and time, and they need to meet more challenges before they earn that trust.
Jones: The Panthers have definitely shown improvement on both sides of the ball. But they’re still 3-10, and they have plenty of holes on that roster. I think Carolina brass can draw encouragement from what they have seen out of Bryce Young and don’t need to look for another answer at quarterback. But I think we need to see what roster moves are made in free agency and the draft before we can be bullish in any way about Carolina being an X-factor in 2025.
Nguyen: The way this franchise has misused assets in recent years keeps me from being too bullish on the Panthers’ future. I do like some of their young pieces, like Xavier Legette and Chuba Hubbard, and watching Bryce Young take advantage of his second chance has been awesome to watch. There is definitely potential for them to build on this core of players, and they’ll have a high first-round pick to work with in April. Dave Canales is a creative play designer and has this team playing clean. Still, in the past we’ve seen teams improve late in the season then fail to build on the positive momentum. I’ll say I’m cautiously optimistic about the Panthers. The biggest thing is that it doesn’t look like they have to start over again at quarterback.
On Sunday, Aaron Rodgers threw for 300 yards for the first time in 35 games. If he is unlikely to return to the Jets in 2025, how much interest should he draw from other teams this offseason?
Jones: If a team is going to bring Aaron Rodgers aboard in 2025, it needs to have a strong defense, quality offensive line and weapons for him to work with. I really don’t know which quarterback-needy team — New York Giants, Las Vegas Raiders, Tennessee Titans, New Orleans Saints — have all of those elements to offer. So, I don’t know that a one-year Rodgers rental would benefit anyone. Maybe the Tennessee Titans could use him as a bridge since Will Levis doesn’t appear to have what it takes — their roster isn’t bad. But I don’t see Rodgers wanting to go to a team that isn’t championship ready.
Nguyen: The problem is that you aren’t just getting a veteran who helps develop a young quarterback. Rodgers comes with a log of baggage. He needs to have players he trusts around him and it’s hard to earn his trust. He needs to run a very specific type of offense and he needs to have a lot of control. Not every offensive coordinator is going to want to cede that kind of control, especially if Rodgers isn’t producing at a high level.
If Rodgers decides that he’s going to trust whatever system that he goes into and just be easier to deal with, the Vikings could be a good fit. Kevin O’Connell runs the same system Rodgers won two MVPs playing in with Green Bay, and it’s one of the best environments any quarterback could go into. Sam Darnold could be in line for a nice pay day and J.J. McCarthy might not be ready to take over as the starter yet. I think there might only be one or two teams that would be interested in signing Rodgers as a starter next season.
Pompei: Even now, it’s crazy to think there are 32 better quarterbacks in the NFL than Rodgers. If you compare him to the other passers in the league, as opposed to the passer he once was, there will be a place for him in 2025. Rodgers is capable of performing significantly better than he did this year, when he was coming off a major injury. He could not rise above the dysfunction of the Jets, but he could be a contributor to a team that doesn’t need him to be its savior. If he finds a fit with strong ownership, solid coaching, offensive playmakers and blockers, and a stout defense, Rodgers can make an impact somewhere. The question: Does that team exist?
(Top photo: Harry How / Getty Images)
