It can be so easy to panic in fantasy football. After all, we have a very limited amount of time to witness and analyze a player’s performance. But never fear — Dalton Del Don is here to gauge exactly how worried we should be — if at all.
Kenneth Walker II, Seattle Seahawks
Walker was fantasy’s RB4 through Week 7, averaging 20.0 fantasy points per game (0.5 PPR). He’s been the RB31 (9.7 fpg) over six weeks since, and he lost a rushing touchdown to Zach Charbonnet last week. However, Walker’s usage has actually increased over that five-game span, as his RB rush share has been 80% (up from 73% previously). But his efficiency and scoring have both tumbled; Walker has averaged just 3.0 YPC while scoring only one touchdown over the last five games despite a mostly favorable RB schedule.
Seattle’s offense has been the league’s worst in goal-to-go situations, ranking 32nd in EPA/play. Still, Walker has the 10th-most carries (11) inside the 5-yard line this season despite missing two games, and Charbonnet has a lowly 3.2 Utilization Score over the last four. It’s been a frustrating stretch for Walker’s fantasy managers, but K9’s usage suggests more production is coming. Walker is due for touchdown regression, and a vastly improved Seattle defense will help with game scripts. The Seahawks’ offensive line remains a concern, but there’s no reason to overly panic.
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Breece Hall, New York Jets
Hall lost a touchdown to Isaiah Davis and a bunch of playing time (61% snap share) last week. He saw season-lows in target share (2.6%) and route participation (51%) while playing through knee swelling that caused him to briefly exit Sunday’s game at one point. Hall also committed two fumbles (losing one) and now has four over the last five games. He doesn’t have a run for 20 yards over his last six games, as he’s somehow been less explosive a year further removed from knee surgery this season. Hall was facing a Seattle defense last week that’s been a top-five unit since trading for Ernest Jones, but he’s playing injured on an awful offense and losing work to multiple backs now.
Hall saw eight rush attempts inside the 10-yard line over his first eight games, but he’s seen zero over the last four. Hall’s fantasy managers have been concerned for some time now, and there’s little reason for optimism for a big finish to his disappointing season.
Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams
Fantasy managers entered last week concerned Williams would lose touches after he fumbled four times over a four-game stretch, and then Blake Corum set season-highs in snap share (33%), rush share (28%) and route participation (23%). Williams has also seen just one target over the last three games.
However, a closer look at last week’s box score might ease some concern. Williams didn’t touch the ball in the first quarter because the Rams totaled three plays (all passes), and Los Angeles somehow had just three possessions over the entire first half while New Orleans intentionally played keep away. Williams saw 14 of 17 RB carries after LA’s second drive (including both attempts inside the 10 and the lone RB target), while Corum took just three carries for 10 yards after his weekly designated drive.
Williams didn’t fumble, and he also recorded season-highs in rushing yards (104) and YPC (6.9) while punching in a short score. Corum doesn’t have a run longer than 12 yards this season (he scored almost all his college touchdowns from inside the five), and last week’s usage was helped by one extended drive. Williams needs to maintain ball security, but he remains the Rams’ workhorse back.
Aaron Jones, Minnesota Vikings
Jones fumbled twice last week (losing one), giving him four over the last three games. He also failed to secure a touchdown catch while finishing with a season low five carries (just one more than Cam Akers). Jones saw only one rush attempt the rest of the game after fumbling twice during his first four carries in the first quarter. He finished with just a 51% snap share and a season low 45.5% RB rush share, although Jones did ultimately catch the game-winning touchdown.
Jones has the seventh-most carries (21) in the league inside the 10-yard line, but he ranks 41st in rushing scores (three) this season. He remains due for TD regression, but there’s now risk he loses GL work given his fumbling issues. Akers has looked better since joining Minnesota, and Jones’ usage trend is clearly concerning.
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
Taylor has been the RB28 (10.0 fpg) over the last three games, causing some panic among his fantasy managers. He’s lost three rushing scores to his quarterback over that span, but Taylor’s role remains rock solid. Taylor’s seen 63-of-64 RB opportunities over the last three games, and he’s due for touchdown regression. Among 28 running backs who’ve seen at least five rush attempts inside the 10-yard line since Week 9, Taylor is one of only two without a rushing score. Taylor has an NFL-high 22 carries inside the red zone over the last month (four inside the five), so more TDs are coming.
Taylor will continue to lose some goal-line scores and targets with Anthony Richardson starting, but the RB’s fantasy production has increased 28% with AR compared to Joe Flacco this season. Fantasy managers shouldn’t panic over Taylor’s recent stretch, as his usage remains strong.
