(NEXSTAR) – On the eve of the presidential election, the final batch of swing state polling from Emerson College and The Hill shows no clear favorite to claim victory in the Electoral College on Tuesday.
Polling released Monday shows small edges in the seven most closely watched states, with neither candidate holding a lead outside the margin of error. The Hill reports that Trump holds an edge in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, while Harris has the edge in Michigan, based on surveys conducted between Oct. 30 and Nov. 2. The candidates were essentially tied in polling of Nevada and Wisconsin.
To break down what the numbers mean, Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, and a panel of Nexstar journalists from the swing states joined Chip Brewster Monday to discuss their expectations for the final vote. You can see the analysis in the video player above.
During the session, Kimball addressed specific dynamics at play in Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.
In the wake of this weekend’s surprising Des Moines Register poll showing Vice President Harris leading in the state, he also addressed the weighting of his polls in an effort to capture the share of Trump voters that were underrepresented in the last two election cycles.
“What we do is we wight back to 2020 and then that balances it off,” Kimball said. “If you just take the raw data and weighted it just by demographics, you would maybe have the race (in Iowa) tied.”
On Tuesday night, we will begin seeing how closely the real electorate matches the models polling agencies have been using to project state winners.
Election Day in the United States is now often considered election week as each state follows its own rules and practices for counting ballots — not to mention the legal challenges — that can delay the results. But the truth is, nobody knows how long it will take for the winner to be announced this time.
In 2020, The Associated Press declared President Joe Biden the winner on Saturday afternoon — four days after polls closed. But even then, The AP called North Carolina for Trump 10 days after Election Day and Georgia for Biden 16 days later after hand recounts.
Four years earlier, the 2016 election was decided just hours after most polls closed. The AP declared Trump the winner on election night at 2:29 a.m. (it was technically Wednesday morning on the East Coast).
This time, both campaigns believe the race is extremely close across the seven swing states.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
