With a slate loaded with exciting games, the NFL Week 9 card presents plenty of value in the player prop markets. In this article, I’ve honed in on four of my favorite picks for the Sunday slate.
I went 2-1 on my picks in this column last week, bringing my season record to 18-4.
Overall, I’m 71-48 on player props for 28.7 units of profit.
All of my picks are tracked in the Action Network app at Wayne_Bets.
De’Von Achane Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (-115 BetMGM)
I’m going back to the well with Achane after he cashed for us last week.
This line bumped up 10 yards from what he played in Tua Tagovailoa’s return, but I still see value with the Dolphins’ starting quarterback in the lineup.
Achane finished with six catches for 50 yards last week, and he now has 6+ catches and 50+ yards in all three games with Tagovailoa.
The difference in Achane’s receiving role has been stark with Tua – he has a 9.9% target share and 0.75 yards per route run rate without Tua, which bumps to 18.4% target share and 3.6 yards per route run with the starting quarterback.
The Bills have also been highly vulnerable to running backs through the air, allowing 6.4 receptions and 54.3 yards per game to the position, both of which lead the NFL.
With the Dolphins 6-point underdogs in this game, the expectation is they’ll be in a trailing game script, further bolstering this pick.
I see a ton of value at this line that still isn’t properly adjusted to Tua’s return, and I’d play this up to 37.5.
Dak Prescott Over 265.5 Passing Yards (-114 FanDuel)
The Cowboys’ quarterback has caught a ton of criticism from the media in recent weeks, and for good reason with the offense underperforming.
However, this is a beautiful get-right spot for the Cowboys against a Falcons defense that ranks 24th against the pass by DVOA and 30th in pressure rate.
Prescott has been pressured at the seventh-highest rate among quarterbacks, so this will be a breath of fresh air for him.
This game has a total set at 51.5, the highest of the week, and every element screams shootout on the fast track in Atlanta.
Both offenses rank top-six in neutral pace of play and neutral pass play rate, and neither defense is equipped to slow the other one down.
Prescott has cleared this line in 13 of his last 20 games dating back to last season, and I’ll bet on him bouncing back here.
Wan’Dale Robinson Longest Reception Under 15.5 Yards (-120 Bet365)
Robinson has seen plenty of volume in the Giants’ offense with a 23.3% target share, but his 4.1-yard average depth of target ranks second-lowest of 101 qualified wide receivers.
Unlike Khalil Shakir, who is the one receiver lower than Robinson, he’s not much of a YAC threat – he averages just 4.1 YAC per reception. Add those two elements together, and you get a painfully low 6.9 yards per reception.
In eight games played this season, Robinson has just two targets of 20+ yards, and both were incomplete. 73% of his targets have come within 9 yards of the line of scrimmage.
Betting on the NFL?
He’s only cleared this number in one of eight games this season, and I’d have fair pricing closer to the 12.5-13.5 range, especially against a Commanders pass defense that has rapidly improved under Dan Campbell.
(Keep in mind that lines move throughout the week, sometimes drastically, so if you need help on whether or not numbers are still playable, hit me up on X at @wayne_bets)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He’s up 84.5 units across the two sports with a 6.27% ROI.
