A majority of registered voters expects former President Trump not to concede the election if he loses next week, according to a CNN/SSRS poll released Monday.
The poll, conducted early last week, shows 69 percent of registered voters nationally saying they think Trump would not accept the election results, and 30 percent saying he would. Only 1 percent say they have no opinion.
The data show a gradual shift from earlier this year. In late January, 74 percent of registered voters said they thought Trump would not concede if he lost, compared to only 25 percent who disagreed. A few months later, in June, 72 percent said they thought he would not concede if he lost, and 28 percent said he would.
Even as confidence in the likelihood of Trump conceding ticks up, registered voters are still not as confident as they were ahead of the 2020 presidential election that Trump would concede if he loses.
Trump, at that time, had already been warning of a potentially fraudulent election, pointing to mail-in ballots and similar accommodations made because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Still, 55 percent said in mid-August 2020 that they expected Trump not to concede if he lost, while 38 percent said he would. In October 2020, 58 percent said they expected Trump not to concede if he lost, while 37 percent disagreed.
In the latest poll, 73 percent say they expect Vice President Harris would concede if she lost, while 26 percent say they do not expect her to do so. In June, 78 percent said they expected President Biden to concede if he lost, compared to 22 percent who said they did not.
The October poll also shows 88 percent of registered voters say they think the loser of the presidential election has an obligation to accept the results and concede once every state has officially certified its vote for president, while 12 percent say they do not.
The Hill has reached out to the Trump campaign for a response.
The latest survey was conducted on Oct. 20-23, 2024 and included 1,704 registered voters, with a margin of error of 3.18 percentage points.
