Almost a year on from the dark events of Hamas‘ October 7 attacks on Israel, the Middle East appears on the edge of catastrophe.
The last 12 months have seen Israel’s IDF reduce huge swathes of Gaza to dismantle Hamas and fend off skirmishes from Hezbollah at its northern border, all while facing endless threats of retribution and destruction from arch-enemy Iran.
But regional tensions are now approaching boiling point, with Israel having launched a ground incursion into Lebanon and embarked on a brutal campaign of incessant airstrikes that last week assassinated Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
Earlier this week, Hezbollah’s backers in Tehran unleashed some 180 ballistic missiles at Israel, some of which successfully penetrated air defence systems and rained down across the Jewish state.
Now Israel appears set to strike back, with Iran’s nuclear, oil and gas facilities said to be in the IDF’s crosshairs.
Amid the chaos, Western powers have been left with no choice but to ramp up their military presence in the region in the hopes of deterring the Islamic Republic – and reassuring Tel Aviv that it will be supported by its allies should the conflict spiral into all-out war.
Here, MailOnline breaks down how the US and UK are piling troops, ships and aircraft into the Middle East and examines how their forces would take on the might of Iran and its Axis of Resistance.
An F-15I fighter jet of the IAF’s 69th Squadron takes off from the Hatzerim Airbase in southern Israel to carry out a strike in Beirut against Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, September 27, 2024
Rockets fired from southern Lebanon are intercepted by Israel’s Iron Dome air defence system over the Upper Galilee region in northern Israel on August 23, 2024
Nasrallah died in a brutal assault that saw Israeli F-15I fighter jets drop dozens of munitions on the Hezbollah HQ in Beirut
Even before Hamas launched its ruthless attack on Israeli civilians on October 7, 2023, Western powers were already well positioned in the Middle East.
The US military had more than 30,000 troops stationed at various bases in a dozen countries, including some 13,000 in Qatar, 7,000 in Bahrain, at least 3,000 each in Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Kuwait, 2,500 in Iraq, and about 2,500 in Turkey – not to mention a handful of soldiers in Syria.
Another 2,000 US Marines with the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit had also just arrived in Kuwait for an exercise when Hamas and Palestinian militants stormed across the border.
Beyond the sheer manpower, the US Navy maintained a constant presence with ships deployed throughout the region’s waters, many of which were tasked with protecting defenceless merchant shipping vessels in the Red Sea once Yemen’s Houthi rebels began launching strikes.
They were also tasked with helping Israel to shoot down Iranian missiles and drones fired by Iran in April, before intervening again on Tuesday amid Tehran’s latest barrage.
But within weeks of Hamas attacks and Israel’s retaliatory strikes in Gaza, Washington assigned another 10,000 troops to the Middle East, including a rapid response force comprised of 2,000 Army and Air Force personnel.
Two aircraft carriers, including the world’s largest – the USS Gerald R. Ford – were sent to the eastern Mediterranean, and the West’s aerial threat was upgraded with a slew of F-15 and F-16 fighter jet squadrons deployed to double the number available in the Persian Gulf.
The Gerald R. Ford alone has a 5,000-strong crew and carries some 90 warplanes, including F-18 Super Hornet jets, F-35 stealth multirole combat aircraft and A-10 Warthog ‘tank buster’ air-to-ground support platforms.
The UK meanwhile operates a pair of RAF airbases in Cyprus and has a smattering of MoD personnel stationed at military bases in Oman, Bahrain, Qatar and Iraq.
RAF Typhoons earlier this year launched from the Akrotiri base in Cyprus to conduct strikes against military targets in Yemen and have been involved in preventing Houthi drone attacks on Red Sea vessels.
The Royal Navy also has two warships stationed in the Eastern Mediterranean and more than 4,000 personnel stationed at bases throughout the Middle East.
Amid Israel’s renewed offensive on Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran’s missile barrage of its regional foe, the number of Western troops in the region has been bumped up yet again.
Within weeks of Hamas’ October 7 attacks and Israel’s retaliatory strikes in Gaza, Washington assigned another 10,000 troops to reinforce the 30,000 or more already in the region along with the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group
F-18 Super Hornets on the world’s largest aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford
The world’s largest aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford steams alongside USNS Laramie in the eastern Mediterranean
RAF Typhoon FGR4 aircraft take-off to conduct further strikes against Houthi targets (03/02/2024)
An RAF Typhoon aircraft takes off to join the US led coalition to conduct air strikes against military targets in Yemen
Earlier this week, the Biden administration announced that another contingent of troops would be sent to the Middle East to complement the more than 40,000 already operating in the region after October 7.
The US Navy’s Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group, headed by the USS Abraham Lincoln, is already operating in the Gulf of Oman.
The aircraft carrier can deploy a total of nine different aircraft squadrons, including three squadrons of F/A-18E Super Hornets, one squadron of F-35C jets, two helicopter strike squadrons and an electronic warfare platform.
It is also supported by the guided-missile cruiser USS Mobile Bay, along with several guided-missile destroyers.
That force will now be reinforced by the Harry Truman Carrier Strike Group, which can deploy another nine aircraft squadrons supported by guided-missile destroyers USS Jason Dunham and USS Stout, along with the guided-missile cruiser USS Gettysburg.
Besides the expanded naval presence, military chiefs have assigned to the region another three air squadrons comprising dozens of aircraft including fearsome F-22 raptor fighter jets, additional F-15 and F-16 platforms and A-10 warthogs.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, in a call with his Israeli counterpart Yoav Gallant on Monday night, said the US ‘supports Israel’s right to defend itself.’
‘We agreed on the necessity of dismantling attack infrastructure along the border to ensure that Lebanese Hezbollah cannot conduct October 7-style attacks on Israel’s northern communities,’ he wrote on X.
He added that ‘I reiterated the serious consequences for Iran in the event Iran chooses to launch a direct military attack against Israel,’ Austin said.
On Sunday, Austin warned that ‘should Iran, its partners or its proxies use this moment to target American personnel or interests in the region, the United States will take every necessary measure to defend our people.’
Britain’s Secretary of State for Defence John Healey shakes hands with soldiers during his visit in Cyprus, at RAF Akrotiri, Cyprus October 2, 2024
Rockets fired from southern Lebanon are intercepted by Israel’s Iron Dome air defence system over the Upper Galilee region in northern Israel on September 27, 2024
Rockets fired from southern Lebanon are intercepted by Israel’s Iron Dome air defence system over the Upper Galilee region in northern Israel on September 27, 2024
The Mk 45 gun system fires aboard the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Cole
An F-35C Lightning II, assigned to Marine Fighter Attack Squadron (VMFA) 314 soars above the flight deck of the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln
An E-2D Hawkeye prepares to perform a touch and go on the flight deck of the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln
This handout picture released by the US Navy on May 17, 2019 shows the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and the Wasp-class Amphibious Assault Ship USS Kearsarge
Had Western allies declined to dispatch additional land, air and sea assets to the Middle East, Israeli forces would still present a serious challenge to their regional adversaries in the event of a full-blown conflict.
Israel has long been supported by the US with $3.3 billion in congressionally mandated annual funding, plus another $500 million toward missile defence technology that protects its skies from rockets and drones.
The Jewish state also spends more than 5 per cent of its GDP on the IDF.
The Israeli Air Force (IAF) is one of the world’s most well-equipped outfits, flying the very best US-manufactured combat aircraft including the formidable F-35 stealth fighter-bomber, and F-15 and F-16 fighter jets specifically designed according to IAF requirements.
It is also believed to have more combat aircraft at its disposal than Iran, outstripping the Islamic Republic’s Air Force (IRIAF) which is made up of older generation F-14 Tomcat fighters, Iranian-manufactured jets based on the aged US F-4 and F-5 series planes, and an assortment of Russian and Chinese manufactured combat aircraft.
But the real Iranian threat is its array of missiles and highly capable drones – undoubtedly the most numerous and diverse in the Middle East – which could be used to deal punishing strikes on Israel.
The Islamic Republic has thousands upon thousands of long-range and precision-guided missiles alongside hundreds of thousands of mid-range cruise missiles.
This is the worst-case scenario feared by Israeli defence experts – a coordinated attack in which Iran, Hezbollah and other allies launch wave after wave of missile and drone strikes that overwhelm Israel’s air defences and devastate towns and cities.
Israeli army tanks manoeuvre in a staging area in northern Israel near the Israel-Lebanon border
An Israeli Apache attack helicopter fires a missile towards southern Lebanon, amid hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel, as seen from northern Israel, October 4, 2024
Israeli shelling hit an area in southern Lebanon as seen from northern Israel, early Tuesday, Oct. 1, 2024
Smoke seeps out from building rubble at the site of an overnight Israeli airstrike on the Laylaki neighbourhood in Beirut’s southern suburbs on October 1, 2024
A photographer runs for cover as smoke rises in the background following an Israeli airstrike in Dahiyeh, Beirut, Lebanon, Friday, Oct. 4, 2024
Hezbollah in particular has evolved into a much graver military threat than it was 18 years ago when it last fought a war with Israel.
Hezbollah in 2006 reportedly had some 15,000 rockets in its arsenal, ‘but more recent unofficial estimates suggest this number has multiplied by almost 10 times,’ said Dina Arakji, associate analyst at UK-based risk consultancy firm Control Risks.
Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) corroborates that assessment, estimating that the group’s arsenal counts 150,000 to 200,000 rockets, including ‘hundreds’ of precision missiles and thousands of drones.
Hezbollah also boasts a range of anti-tank and anti-air systems, a fleet of thousands of drones, and dozens of tanks and armoured vehicles, and claims to have up to 100,000 active fighters – though INSS estimates the number is more likely 25,000 to 50,000.
And, like Hamas, Hezbollah has an extensive tunnel network along the Lebanese-Israeli border which serves as a strategic asset for clandestine movement, storage, and guerrilla warfare.
