Investing.com — Alpine Macro said in a note Tuesday that they believe Kamala Harris won the September 10 debate. However, the firm maintains that Donald Trump remains the favorite in the race for the presidency.
According to their analysis, while Harris was better prepared and delivered a better performance, her victory is unlikely to sway many voters.
The debate, watched by 67 million people, did not significantly alter the dynamics of the race. “The debate is unlikely to sway most voters, particularly centrists and independents,” said the firm.
Alpine Macro notes that Harris struggled to articulate a clear governing agenda, particularly on critical issues like the economy, immigration, crime, and inflation.
Trump, on the other hand, may not have performed well, but his liabilities as a candidate are already well-known and “priced in” by voters, according to the firm. They add that Harris’ liabilities, however, have not yet been fully realized in public opinion.
Polling remains tight. However, Alpine Macro points out that Harris’ polling numbers are weaker compared to Joe Biden in 2020 and Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Additionally, Trump is outperforming his polling figures from those previous elections. Given this, Alpine Macro sees Trump as having a slight edge, estimating his chances of winning at 55%. They note that the consensus is 50-60% for Harris.
The real test, according to Alpine Macro, will be the polling trends over the next week. If Harris fails to gain significant momentum, Trump’s position as the slight favorite will remain unchanged.
Turning its attention to markets, Alpine Macro said that despite the debate, markets have largely ignored the election, with the focus staying on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting on September 17-18.
“After the Fed’s decision, markets will gradually shift focus to the electoral race, including congressional races,” says Alpine Macro.
