Although the chances of fair elections being held in Venezuela were always slim, many hoped that a positive outcome would bring an end to the dire situation caused by President Nicolás Maduro’s authoritarian regime.
The opposition, led by Maria Corina Machado and Edmundo González, knew how unlikely this was to happen. So they carried out a careful strategy of proving electoral fraud by gathering over 70 percent of the vote tally sheets — called “actas” — used in polling centers nationwide. These tallies, together with evidence gathered by independent observers and non-governmental organizations, showed that the winner was in fact González and that the results presented by Maduro’s government were fabricated.
In spite of the massive opposition protests, Maduro has not stepped down. Rather, his regime has significantly increased violence and repression, cracking down on protesters, detaining and kidnapping members of the opposition, spreading fear using armed paramilitary groups known as colectivos and starting a witch hunt against anyone deemed an enemy of the regime. González, the rightful president-elect, has been chased out of the country and into exile in Spain.
The outcome of the election will have serious implications for the security, economies and foreign relations of the Western hemisphere, especially for Venezuela’s neighbor, Colombia.
First, there will almost certainly be a new wave of migration as a result of the illegal detentions, cases of forced disappearance and insecurity in Venezuela. There are already close to 8 million Venezuelan emigrants around the world, 6.5 million of whom are in Latin America, most of them in Colombia (2.8 million), Peru (1.5 million) and Brazil (over 500,000). Increasing emigration is likely to worsen the humanitarian emergency in the Darien Gap, the human smuggling crisis and drug trafficking networks, all of which have destabilized Panama.
This migration is also likely to increase tension between the United States and Mexico and countries in Central America, as the U.S. will exert pressure on them to stop incoming migrants from making it to the border. For the U.S., a new exodus of Venezuelans will come in the middle of election season, where the subject will transcend the political realm, causing legitimate security concerns related to the Tren de Aragua gang, among others.
Second, the fraudulent continuation of the Maduro regime is a significant security and stability risk for the region. For the past two decades, Colombian armed groups like the Ejército de Liberación Nacional (ELN), several factions of the FARC and the Clan del Golfo have been known to operate within Venezuela. These groups have been using Venezuela as a sanctuary, and evidence suggests they have been harbored by the Chavez-Maduro regime. In fact, the ELN operates in western Venezuela as a paramilitary organization with full allegiance to the regime.
With Maduro holding onto power and the failure of Colombian President Gustavo Petro’s “total peace” policy, Colombian armed groups and Venezuelan criminal organizations will likely continue to expand, affecting the whole region. Cocaine lords will continue to use Venezuela as a deployment platform, shipping the drug out through Colombian ports in the Pacific and Atlantic or through Ecuador, which is increasingly becoming a hub for illegal drugs exports.
Likewise, illegal mining — especially of gold, cobalt and coltan — will increase. Illegal gold mining in Venezuela takes place mostly in its southern regions, and is transported through Colombia, Guyana and Brazil to customers in North America and Europe. Through these illicit economies, armed groups in Venezuela will increase their capacity for violence and territorial control.
Regarding Venezuela’s territorial dispute with Guyana, Maduro may use a strategy similar to those of its global partners. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Iranian proxy war against Israel and the Chinese threats to Taiwan are an appealing model for an autocratic regime: use nationalism to unify the public and pursue the oil wealth of a neighboring country, disrupting regional stability and global energy markets.
Third, in wider geopolitical terms, the chessboard favors the “autocrats.” As expected, repressive regimes like Cuba, Iran, Nicaragua and Russia supported the Venezuelan election results. The stolen election increases the risk of democratic backsliding throughout South America.
The electoral fraud in Venezuela is the second to happen in the region in less than five years, with Maduro following the path of Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua. With increasingly unstable democracies on the continent, dirty wins by autocratic regimes are a real threat to regional democracies. Likewise, as it has done since the Chavez era, the regime will continue seeking to influence elections in other countries to promote its “Bolivarian Socialism.”
The results are also likely to divide the region further, creating regional blocs that limit social and economic cooperation. While Bolivia, Nicaragua and Honduras accepted the counterfeit results, Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, Peru, Panama, the Dominican Republic and Uruguay condemned the fraud, in some cases cutting diplomatic ties with the Maduro regime. Standing in a biased “neutrality” are the governments of Mexico, Brazil and Colombia, which each have ideological ties to the regime and are playing to keep Maduro in power.
In the case of Colombia, President Petro is ideologically aligned with Maduro, and has tried to spearhead a policy of reestablishing diplomatic relations with Venezuela — a strategy that has produced no result. Petro’s decision to cease new contracts of exploration and exploitation of hydrocarbons, despite Colombia’s large reserves means, that the country is at risk of having a natural gas deficit by 2025. The government has proposed importing natural gas from Venezuela, creating an energy dependency and effectively restricting Colombia’s foreign policy.
Finally, Venezuela plays an important role in Colombia’s negotiations with the ELN guerilla group, seeking a peace deal intended to pull Colombia into the realm of “Socialismo del siglo XXI” and away from its traditional democratic values and its alliance with the U.S.
Failing the brave but defenseless Venezuelans and their pursuit for democratic results will have a significant effect on peace, stability and democracy on the continent. Maduro’s victory is a victory for organized crime, malign powers and autocracy, and a defeat for human rights, freedom and democratic values. Allowing Maduro to fulfill his electoral fraud would be robbing Venezuela of its legitimate president, Edmundo González.
Furthermore, in today’s era of global power competition, allowing Maduro to prevail will harm the region in unpredictable ways. The time for action to guarantee freedom and democracy is now, regardless of the cost. Rewarding Maduro’s dictatorship will only encourage others to play the same game.
Juan Carlos Pinzón is a former minister of Defense of Colombia and twice served as Colombia’s ambassador to the U.S. He is a visiting professor at SPIA-Princeton University. Gerardo Caneva is his chief of staff and an expert in political risk analysis.
