Marquee toss-up races and high-profile candidates have dominated the political conversation as both parties battle for the House and Senate, but some potential sleeper contests could offer political observers a surprise.
Democrats’ razor-thin edge in the Senate is at risk this fall, and observers are eyeing a small handful of races that could deliver surprise upsets against Republican incumbents, possibly giving the party some room for error. And both parties are targeting under-the-radar pickup opportunities in both House and gubernatorial races.
Here are some key potential sleeper races to watch this fall:
Nebraska Senate race
An independent candidate in Nebraska is looking for the surprise of the cycle with a long-shot bid against Sen. Deb Fischer (R) in the reliably red state, as some new polling flashes signs that the race could be unexpectedly competitive.
Democrats haven’t fielded a candidate, and independent Dan Osborn has rejected party endorsements, though Republicans are seeking to paint him as a Democrat in disguise.
A recent SurveyUSA/Split Ticket poll raised eyebrows when it showed Fischer and Osborn neck-and-neck. Polling has otherwise been sparse, but the new findings are in line with several Osborn-commissioned polls that found him within the margin of error.
At the same time, a Fischer-sponsored poll put the incumbent up by double digits. She also has the fundraising edge, and strategists argue her low profile in the Senate hasn’t given Nebraskans reason to give her the boot.
Still, a potentially competitive challenger could put Republicans in the Cornhusker State on the defense in a state they thought was already locked up. It could also mark a promising sign for future independent bids for the upper chamber, where Democrats and Republicans hold all but four seats.
Texas Senate race
Democrats are aiming for an upset in the red state of Texas, where Rep. Colin Allred (D) is running against incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R). Allred’s entry into the race last year shifted the Senate seat from “solid” to “likely” Republican.
Six years ago, Democrat Beto O’Rourke came within 3 points of ousting Cruz. The latest polling averages from The Hill/Decision Desk HQ show Cruz with a 5-point lead over Allred.
And while some in the state are skeptical Allred can overtake the incumbent, observers say it’s not a great sign Cruz isn’t seeing a bigger edge.
Meanwhile, Democrats are worried about Montana, where incumbent Sen. Jon Tester (D) faces Trump-backed Tim Sheehy in the red stronghold.
The chair of Democrats’ Senate campaign arm said Tuesday that their priority focus is on protecting vulnerable incumbents like Tester, the Texas Tribune reported, but stressed they’re focused on Florida and Texas as offensive opportunities.
Surprise Senate wins in Florida or Texas could give the party room to lose in Big Sky Country.
Florida Senate race
The Senate race in Florida also looks like it’s gearing up to be closer than expected, as former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) runs to oust incumbent Sen. Rick Scott (R).
Florida has gotten redder in recent years, but polling has shown Scott with a shrinking lead over his Democratic challenger. A new survey from Emerson College Polling/The Hill found a dead heat.
The Cook Political Report rates the seat as “likely Republican,” a step short of being solidly in the GOP column. A DDHQ forecast model had Scott at an 83 percent chance of winning another term just last month, but that figure has now fallen to 69 percent.
Democrats have also grown optimistic that Florida is in play in the presidential race, given the surge of momentum behind Harris’s fast-tracked bid. The party also hopes to get a boost this fall from two ballot measures, aimed at enshrining abortion rights and legalizing recreational marijuana.
Last week, Mucarsel-Powell helped kick off a Harris campaign bus tour in the state focused on reproductive rights, stressing that “our freedoms are on the line in November.”
New Hampshire governor’s race
The race is on to replace Republican Gov. Chris Sununu (N.H.) in one of the few competitive governor races this year.
The contest hasn’t yet caught major national attention, but it’s the only gubernatorial race Cook rates as a “toss up.”
New Hampshire has long trended blue in presidential races, and Democrats make up all four members of its congressional delegation. But Sununu scored four terms as a GOP governor, and Republicans hold the edge in the state Legislature.
Former Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.), with Sununu’s backing, won the Granite State’s Republican gubernatorial primary on Tuesday. She lost her Senate seat in 2016 to Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan (N.H.).
She’ll go up this fall against Democrat Joyce Craig, the former mayor of Manchester backed by Hassan and Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey (D).
Washington governor’s race
Washington has voted Democrats into the governor’s mansion since the mid-1980s, but the race has emerged this cycle as unexpectedly competitive.
Gov. Jay Inslee’s (D) decision to retire attracted a crowded field of candidates for the state’s nonpartisan primary, from which Washington Attorney General Bob Ferguson (D) and former Rep. Dave Reichert (R) advanced.
Ferguson, who’s been the state’s top attorney for more than a decade, has Inslee’s endorsement to succeed him. Reichert, a former sheriff, snagged name-ID for helping catch Washington state’s “Green River Killer.”
Cook shifted the seat from “solid” to “likely” Democrat in February, and then again to “lean” Democrat in June. After the primary, and after Harris launched her campaign, the race shifted back to “likely” blue.
But the election handicapper noted Reichert “still has a path” to flipping the state. One Cygnal poll from late August found Ferguson up just three points.
Iowa’s 1st Congressional District
Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks was first elected to the House in a stunningly slim six-vote victory in Iowa back in 2020, flipping the 1st Congressional District out of Democratic hands.
During the midterms, she bested Democrat Christina Bohannan by a much stronger 7-point margin.
But this year, as Miller-Meeks readies for a rematch with Bohannan, a former state lawmaker, Democrats are zeroing in on a potential pickup opportunity after the two-term incumbent saw an unexpectedly competitive primary.
Cook softened the 1st Congressional District race from “likely” to “lean” Republican last week, citing “glaring weaknesses with her own base” and an “aggressive” campaign from Bohannan.
Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District
Democrats are also hoping to make a competitive race out of Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District, where Democrat Janelle Stelson is challenging six-term Republican incumbent Rep. Scott Perry.
Perry was among a handful of Republican lawmakers subpoenaed by the House select committee that investigated the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol. He’s also come under scrutiny for his objections to the 2020 presidential election.
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) called Perry “full of s‑‑‑‑” last month for contesting Biden’s 2020 win in the Keystone state, but not his own reelection win that year.
Democrats are excited about Stelson, a former broadcast journalist, whose entry into the race last year shifted Cook’s rating from “likely” to “lean” Republican. She was previously a registered Republican, according to the Pennsylvania Capital-Star, and won a crowded Democratic primary to take Perry on.
