(NewsNation) — The affordable housing crisis is at the top of voters’ minds, and former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris have promised to fix the problem if they are elected.
Elevated mortgage rates, low supply and record high prices have made homebuying a nightmare in recent years. Soaring rents have also squeezed Americans, with prices up nearly 25% since the pandemic.
“The housing market is a real blemish on the report card for the economy,” said Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin. “It’s gotten to be a national problem. It’s not just a coastal, blue state problem anymore.”
Housing was second only to inflation in a recent Gallup survey of Americans’ financial worries. Among young voters, housing ranked as the third most important issue overall, behind inflation and health care, according to a Harvard poll of 18 to 29-year-olds.
Fairweather said low supply is the crux of the problem. Estimates have put the nation’s housing shortage between 4 to 7 million homes.
Both candidates are promising to cut red tape, support first-time homebuyers and open up more federal land for development, though details differ.
Here’s what Harris and Trump plan to do about housing affordability.
What Harris wants to do
Expand housing supply with tax incentives
Harris has pledged to build 3 million new housing units in the next four years. To achieve that, she’s proposed a new tax break for builders focused on first-time buyers and wants to expand existing incentives for companies that construct rentals.
Zoning laws are typically controlled at the local level, so Harris would push for a $40 billion federal “innovation fund” that would “empower local governments to fund local solutions.”
The vice president has also called for repurposing “certain federal lands” for new housing developments and “streamlining permitting processes and reviews.”
Those efforts are aimed at boosting the housing supply in a way that could appeal to lawmakers on both sides of the aisle, who would likely need to approve any major changes.
“Part of what her campaign is doing is pointing to areas of policy where there’s been prior bipartisan consensus,” said Francis Torres, associate director of the Bipartisan Policy Center’s housing team.
Even so, the federal government is fairly limited in what it can do to address local housing regulations, Torres added.
Up to $25,000 in down-payment support for first-time buyers
Harris is proposing the government provide up to $25,000 in assistance for first-time buyers. Her plan says that support will be available to working families who have paid their rent on time for two years and are buying their first home.
According to the campaign, that policy will allow more than 4 million first-time homebuyers to get “significant down payment assistance” over the next four years.
Scott Lincicome, vice president of general economics and trade at the libertarian-leaning Cato Institute, is against the idea. He worries the policy will boost demand before supply has caught up.
“Building homes, even if the policy at the federal level were effective, it’s going to take years to do,” he said.
While that supply is being built, Lincicome thinks Harris’s first-time homebuyer support would push up demand and lead to a spike in prices.
Challenge corporate landlords and cap “unfair rent increases”
At her first major rally in July, Harris promised to “take on corporate landlords and cap unfair rent increases.”
Rent control has long been controversial among economists, who generally agree that the policy reduces the rental supply and worsens affordable housing shortages.
Nevertheless, the Biden-Harris administration recently called on Congress to pass legislation that would end certain tax incentives for corporate landlords who don’t keep annual rent increases below 5% each year.
The vice president has also urged federal lawmakers to pass two separate bills aimed at curtailing corporate power in the housing market.
The Stop Predatory Investing Act would end specific tax benefits for major real estate investors, while the second piece of legislation is an effort to crack down on so-called price-fixing algorithms, which proponents say allow landlords to collude to set rents.
What Trump wants to do
Trump hasn’t shared many details about his plan to address housing affordability.
The official GOP platform says Republicans will “reduce mortgage rates by slashing inflation” and will also open “limited portions of federal lands” for new home construction.
Like Harris, Republicans say they will promote homeownership through “tax incentives” and “support for first-time buyers” as well as cutting “unnecessary Regulations that raise housing costs.”
When asked about his housing plan in a recent Bloomberg interview, Trump criticized environmental regulations and the extensive permitting process.
“I went through years of zoning. Zoning is like … it’s a killer,” he said.
Research from the National Association of Homebuilders shows government regulations account for roughly 40% of apartment development costs.
A recent Washington Post analysis found red counties permit more housing than blue ones. In fact, the typical Trump-voting county permitted twice as much housing per person as its Biden-voting neighbors and rivals, the Post found. Though again, housing regulation occurs at the local level.
While he’s talked pro-development, Trump has also tried to appeal to suburban voters, most of whom live in single-family homes. At a recent rally, the former president touted his efforts to make sure there were “no low-income housing developments built in areas that are right next to your house.”
Crackdown on illegal immigration
Trump blames skyrocketing housing costs, in part, on the recent immigration surge, which has seen millions of migrants come to the U.S., both legally and illegally, in recent years.
“I will also stop inflation by stopping the invasion, rapidly reducing housing costs,” Trump said at a Wisconsin rally in June.
The GOP platform echoes that sentiment and promises to reverse the “Democrats’ Open Borders Policies that have driven up the cost of Housing.”
While it’s true more people in need of housing leads to higher demand, Lincicome said it’s unclear how much of an impact curbing immigration would have. There could even be negative consequences on the supply side.
“Immigrants disproportionately work in the construction industry, and so you would not only be removing demand, you’d be removing supply,” he said.
Fairweather agreed: “We do need to address the labor shortages in the construction industry, and one way to do that is to create a pathway for immigrants who have those specialized skills.”
According to the National Association of Homebuilders, 1 in 4 construction workers are immigrants. In states like Texas and California, immigrants make up 40% of the construction workforce.
Trade war spells bad news
Trump has continued to double down on many of the policies that he pushed for during his first term, particularly when it comes to tariffs.
During an economic speech Thursday, the GOP nominee said increasing tariffs would be part of his “national economic renaissance.” The protectionist strategy is part of Trump’s appeal to working-class voters who have seen factories close and their jobs offshored, but a broader trade war could push prices higher for builders and homebuyers.
“Construction costs are higher because of tariffs, and that’s actually one area that the President has a lot of power,” Lincicome said.
With that said, Harris may not be much better, Lincicome pointed out. The Biden administration has kept most of the Trump administration tariffs in place and even hiked them on some Chinese goods.
