Donald Trump’s campaign insists that they’re pursuing multiple strategies against Kamala Harris, but the true picture that is emerging is that the Trump senior advisers’ grand plan, for now, is to pray that the former US president has a good night at the presidential debate next month.
The game plan, in other words, has become one of hoping that Trump wins the debate so they can regain momentum – a stunning approach that shows the serious predicament for Trump and his campaign as he struggles to find ways to land effective attacks against the vice-president just months before the election.
What has happened internally in the Trump campaign in recent weeks is the realization that nothing they do in the period up to the debate is likely to cut through in a significant way that blunts Harris’s gains that have her level in key swing state polls, according to people close to the matter.
And because they don’t think the messaging will cut through, senior advisers are left hoping that Trump can energize voters with his performance on stage, the people said.
Trump is certain to continue his day-to-day campaign work until the debate on 10 September: he has a busy travel schedule that will see him do a town hall event in Wisconsin and a rally in Pennsylvania this week, after his visit to the Arlington national cemetery became mired in controversy.
He has also had some success in cutting through the news cycle in recent days, including when he took over headlines at the end of last week when Robert F Kennedy Jr gave his endorsement.
But the reality is that good news has been in short supply. Since Joe Biden exited the race in July and Harris rapidly replaced him, her campaign has flipped the narrative, turning a consistent Biden loss in the polls into a narrow but solid Harris lead.
With Trump struggling to frame the narrative against Harris, the general posture inside campaign leadership is to write off the regular programming that won’t change the race – and look to a debate that might.
The pivot to praying Trump does well at the debate is practical, even if writing off two weeks is unusual. Trump can perform on stage, and knocked opponents back in 2016 and 2020 and against Biden in 2024 with sarcastic quips and an avalanche of disorientating false claims.
The campaign also feels that Trump can use the debate as an opportunity to get across to a national primetime audience his messaging points criticizing Harris on policy – accusing Harris of allowing waves of illegal immigrants and not cracking down on crime – that have so far not broken through.
As the reasoning goes, even if the television networks decline to air Trump’s rallies or remarks criticizing Harris day-to-day, they will be forced to air Trump and his attack lines when he has the floor.
Trump’s advisers have also been buoyed by the likelihood that microphones will be muted when it is not a candidate’s turn to speak, believing it defangs Harris in being able to fact-check him in real time and in her ability to make quips of her own.
The muted microphones have been a particularly big deal for Trump’s advisers, who internally have been repeatedly pushing for “CNN rules”, in a reference to the disastrous CNN debate with Biden last month when microphones were muted.
It comes as several Trump advisers have warned about Harris’s jabs in debates in 2020: telling Mike Pence: “Mr Vice-President, I’m speaking”, and responding to former congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard – now involved in Trump’s debate prep – in the Democratic primary debate with chiding comments.
