MILWAUKEE — Weeks of Democratic pressure on President Joe Biden to drop out of the presidential race had already turned the 2024 campaign on its head right as Republicans were readying to gather this week and crown former President Donald Trump as their nominee.
Then a would-be assassin grazed Trump’s ear with a bullet at a Pennsylvania rally.
Both developments have shaken up a race that had remained stagnant — but close — for months, and they will be top of mind for attendees going into this week’s Republican National Convention.
The conversation surrounding the race has been flipped — and flipped again — after months when the discussion was centered on the possibility Trump could return to office following the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol and amid the handful of ongoing prosecutions he faces.
But a more disciplined campaign, some beneficial court rulings — aside from his guilty verdict in a New York City courtroom in May — and Biden’s sparking an intraparty firestorm after a disastrous debate performance last month have set Trump up in a position he’s unfamiliar with in his near-decade in running for the presidency: as the odds-on favorite to win.
And that dynamic, above all else, should lead to some intriguing storylines to watch at his convention this week.
Here are some to keep an eye on:
How the attempted assassination changes the convention
A major theme will be how the weekend’s violence transforms the message throughout convention week.
Will speakers continue to hammer away at the planned themes? Will they seek to restrain rhetoric in the name of pushing for unity in the aftermath of the attack on Trump — which killed one rallygoer and wounded others? Or will Republicans seek to lay blame for Saturday’s shooting at the hands of Democratic leaders?
How, too, will that affect speakers who previously may have been gently critical of elements of the Republican platform or the Trump campaign remains an open question — but one worth watching. Social conservatives who may have taken issue with elements of the platform, particularly its softening on some key cultural issues, now might not lodge such complaints.
The same is true in reverse. At a time when Trump is seeking to distance himself from the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 — which has become central in Democratic campaigns against his return to office — he is clearly sensitive to where he is seen on certain hot-button issues. A convention speaker’s going beyond Trump’s stated positions has the potential to cause a big stir, both in the media and within Trump’s campaign.
Trump and his top campaign aides have been widely credited with a more disciplined campaign this cycle, so it’s difficult to imagine a speaker getting such prepared remarks past them at this tightly managed convention. And here, too, the shooting may have just taken that off the table.
Take the fight to Biden — or Kamala Harris?
After a disastrous debate performance in Atlanta last month, Biden faces a full-on firestorm within the Democratic Party as some lawmakers, influencers and donors have pushed for him to leave the race. In appearances since then, he has defiantly rejected their calls and is plugging cracks in his dam just weeks before his own party’s convention. And with the assassination attempt, focus has suddenly shifted away from him.
Republicans certainly spent years preparing to battle Biden on the trail this fall. Which makes the possibility that he’s replaced all the more interesting at the key Republican campaign event of the summer.
Should Biden stay in the race, much of the campaign against him will be focused on his policy decisions as president — particularly on immigration and the economy — as well as on his Justice Department’s involvement in a pair of prosecutions Trump faces and his overall physical and cognitive ability to serve as president.
If Biden does decide to step aside ahead of his convention — a decision he’s signaling now is out of the question — the most likely person to replace him is Vice President Kamala Harris, whom Republicans are already suggesting they will attack for participating in a “cover-up” of Biden’s fitness for office.
Will speakers focus more of their energy on Biden at their headline event of the summer? Or will Harris be of much greater focus? The answer to that will give viewers a sense of the campaign they’re really preparing for now as the fall sprint nears.
Sidelining social conservative issues
Trump hasn’t totally backed off of some of the issues animating social conservatives, as his recently announced party platform elevates a number of culture war issues the right has seized upon in recent years, particularly those to do with education and transgender rights.
But this year’s platform is a staunch departure from decades’ worth of GOP alignment on several other key issues.
For starters, abortion restrictions, much as they have been in Trump’s campaign since Roe v. Wade was overturned, are taking a back seat. Trump’s abortion platform is softer than recent Republican Party platforms, as is the position on same-sex marriage. Guns and God also are mentioned less than in the past in his concise document — one that lays out the vision for MAGA 2025.
That has led to some backlash so far from social conservative leaders, groups and politicians, and it will be perhaps the key issue to watch play out at the convention.
One place to see the battle play out will be during convention speeches — and whether any speakers decide to place particular focus on that split. Speaking of convention speeches, some conservatives have already taken issue with model Amber Rose, a key figure in the “SlutWalk” movement, having the opportunity to speak.
