The Southeast and Gulf Coast are expected to see downpours for most of the weekend, with some of the highest rainfall totals over Florida on Saturday. A level 1 out of 4 flash flood threat is in effect through the weekend, with cities like Tampa and New Orleans in the zone.
Last updated at 10 a.m. on Friday, Sept. 11, 2026.
Our reliable record of tropical development only goes back to 1966. That’s when weather satellites began giving us a view of the entire Atlantic Ocean. Since that time, it’s unlikely that we would have missed any hurricanes. In those 60 hurricane seasons that have gone by, the latest date that the first hurricane developed was September 11.
We are obviously going to blow past that modern record this year. A drier-than-normal atmosphere, higher-than-normal pressures, hostile upper-level winds, and subsiding air are prohibiting any development across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic.
No tropical development expected in the Atlantic over the next week.
(Bryan Norcross / FOX Weather)
Before there was satellite coverage, a number of years in the record book had their first hurricane appear after this date. A couple of years, 1907 and 1914, had no hurricanes at all. In 1905, the first hurricane formed on October 7. But confidence in the record that depends mostly on ship reports and island impacts likely has gaps.
Tiny chance of development
There’s a slight chance that one of those middle-of-the-ocean low-pressure systems could end up trackable next week. Some of the computer forecast models show a slight chance of a storm developing east of Bermuda and zipping off into the open ocean.
Even if it formed, it would be a technicality and not affect anybody. The National Hurricane Center isn’t biting on the weak signal in the models.
ATLANTIC GOES EERILY QUIET AT PEAK OF HURRICANE SEASON AS EL NIÑO SHUTS DOWN TROPICAL ACTIVITY
In the Pacific
Tropical Storm Norbert is heading in the general direction of Hawaii. The latest forecasts show a somewhat unsupportive atmosphere ahead. It is forecast to intensify into a hurricane but then weaken. Long-range forecasts in the various computer models diverge.
Tropical Storm Norbert
(Bryan Norcross / FOX Weather)
We’ll have to keep an eye on it next week to see if it dies out or is able to resurrect itself.
Another system looks likely to form in the same patch of ocean next week. There’s no sign that it would threaten land at this point, but systems that haven’t begun to develop need to be watched once there is a circulation to track.
TROPICAL STORM NORBERT POISED TO BECOME PACIFIC’S NEXT HURRICANE, POTENTIALLY HEADING TOWARD HAWAII
The National Hurricane Center is also noting a disorganized system southeast of Hawaii. Indications are that it will track north. We’ll have to watch it because it’s relatively close to the islands. There’s no indication at this point that it will get very strong, even if it does develop. The odds are low, but we’ll watch it to be sure.
A look at the Pacific on Sept. 11, 2026.
(Bryan Norcross / FOX Weather)
100 years ago today
September 11, 1926: A tropical depression had formed in the Caribbean a few hundred miles south of western Cuba. It was heading north in the general direction of Florida.
At the same time, a strong tropical storm was located about 900 miles east of the Caribbean. It was tracking west-northwest toward the waters north of Puerto Rico.
And so began of an epic week for Miami and South Florida. Newspapers would report on both systems, plus another powerful hurricane south of Bermuda was heading in the general direction of the northeast U.S. In the South Florida newspapers that September 11th, that storm, which they described as being “north of Porto Rico” was the only one mentioned.
September 11 was a Saturday in 1926. South Florida people didn’t know it at the time, but that day kicked off a one-week countdown to impact from a monster hurricane that would change their lives and alter the trajectory of Miami forever.
