Projecting experience
But by drawing on his long history as a labour leader, Amaral said Lula is seeking to underscore qualities his closest competitor cannot: experience and longevity.
Heading into October’s election, Lula faces his greatest challenge from a 45-year-old first-term senator, Flavio Bolsonaro.
The senator earned his party’s nomination after getting the endorsement of his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, in December.
“It’s as if he’s saying, ‘I’m not a daddy’s boy. I’ve got 50 years of experience,'” Amaral said of Lula’s strategy.
The rivalry between Lula and the Bolsonaro family has deep roots. During the last presidential election, in 2022, Lula narrowly beat Jair Bolsonaro by 1.8 percentage points.
It was the closest presidential election in Brazilian history.
The Bolsonaro family, however, has cultivated close ties with the Trump White House. As a result, foreign policy, usually peripheral to Brazilian elections, has assumed unusual importance this year.
Trump has injected himself into Brazilian politics throughout Lula’s third term, painting the Brazilian government as censoring right-wing voices.
He has also sought to use economic leverage to end the prosecution of Jair Bolsonaro, who was convicted of plotting a coup after losing to Lula in the 2022 presidential race.
Last year, Trump announced 50 percent tariffs on a range of Brazilian exports, as penalty for the “government of Brazil’s treatment of former President Bolsonaro”. He denounced the trial as “political persecution”.
But critics say Lula transformed the tariffs into a popularity boost, successfully pinning the blame on the Bolsonaro family.
A July 2025 poll, conducted after the tariffs were announced, showed his approval ratings cresting above 50 percent for the first time in about nine months.
Those tariffs were ultimately rolled back. But in June this year, Trump unveiled new 25 percent tariffs on certain Brazilian products, citing “unfair trading practices” under Lula.
Paz, the political science professor, believes Lula is unlikely to wring any significant benefit at the ballot box from these tariffs, unless he can tie the extra taxes to conditions facing the average Brazilian consumer.
“For example, if the government spots a specific good or service that has become unaffordable due to these tariffs, it can push the blame onto Trump and the Bolsonaro family,” Paz said.
“That could win Lula some more undecided voters.”
