If you’re looking forward to a winter ski getaway, the Super El Niño could scupper your fresh powder plans.
The weather phenomenon is forecast to bring less snow than usual over Europe, with significantly less expected over key ski destinations.
Andrej Flis, a senior meteorologist and long–range forecaster at Severe Weather Europe, warned a dominant mild Atlantic air flow will drive widespread snowfall deficits across low and mid–elevations.
Popular destinations such as Les Gets and Morzine in France, and Saalbach–Hinterglemm and Mayrhofen in Austria, could be the most affected.
However, resorts at an elevation of about 1,800–2,000m in the Alps – such as Val Thorens and Tignes – look ‘favourable’ for snowy conditions, models show.
‘Overall, models agree on a well below–normal snow season across Europe, dominated by a high–pressure ridge and a North Atlantic low–pressure zone, driving a milder westerly flow into the continent,’ he wrote in a blog post.
‘Below–normal snowfall does not mean no snowfall at all. It just means less snow than the long–term average.
‘So, an area with one metre (40 in) of total snowfall over the winter, on average, might see just 25 cm (10 in) of snow instead.’
Popular destinations such as Les Gets and Morzine in France, and Saalbach–Hinterglemm and Mayrhofen in Austria, could be the most affected. However, areas about 1,800–2,000m in the Alps – such as Val Thorens and Tignes – look ‘favourable’ for snowy conditions, models show
Popular destinations such as Les Gets and Morzine in France (pictured during a previous low snow season) could be the most affected
The El Niño Southern Oscillation is a naturally occurring climate cycle that shifts between hot El Niño years and cool La Niña years once every two to seven years.
As we enter an El Niño phase, the powerful trade winds that normally blow hot water across the Pacific towards Australia weaken, or even reverse.
That prevents cool waters welling up from the deep ocean below and causes hot water to collect near the surface off the west coast of South America.
Eventually, that warm water starts to spread out, raising the average global temperature and causing major disruptions to weather patterns around the globe.
Mr Flis explained that for skiers in Europe, ‘the upcoming season here will be defined by elevation and latitude’.
The forecast for November indicates that most areas will have below–normal snowfall, ‘indicating a very delayed snow season start, even across the elevations’.
‘The December snowfall forecast shows most of the lowlands with below–normal snowfall, apart from the far north,’ he said.
‘This is due to a more westerly to southwesterly flow over most of Europe, which is rich in precipitation but also warmer.’
A forecast for North America shows reduced snowfall across the Northern US and southern and Atlantic Canada. However, it shows above-normal snowfall potential across the Central and Eastern United States and eastern Canada
He added: ‘In the January forecast, the pattern does not improve much, as the southern high–pressure ridge persists and the westerly flow continues.
‘February is usually a snowier month across Europe, so a persistent high–pressure ridge will create the strongest snowfall deficit.’
Experts have warned that the El Niño weather phenomenon is ‘supersizing before our eyes’ and is on track to wreak havoc until at least February.
The World Meteorological Organisation said sea surface temperatures in the region at the heart of El Niño are already well above average and are continuing to rise.
Pacific Ocean temperatures are now more than 2°C above average in some regions.
Scientists say the warmth lurking beneath the surface is even more remarkable, with some underwater areas reaching a staggering 8°C above normal.
‘A Super El Niño tends to bring widespread snowfall deficits over Europe, specifically over the northwest, southern, and north–central regions,’ Mr Flis said.
‘The main reason is a mild westerly flow from the Atlantic and a rising southerly ridge, keeping temperatures too high to support widespread snow cover apart from elevations.’
Commenting on the maps Grahame Madge, Climate Science Communicator at the Met Office, said: ‘El Niño, particularly a powerful event such as the one still developing, influences weather patterns around the world, but there is no simple relationship between El Niño and the amount of snowfall Europe will see in a given winter.
‘Snowfall depends on a range of factors including temperature, storm tracks and the interaction of El Niño with other climate drivers. The UK and north-western Europe are exposed to weather drivers from the Atlantic, the Arctic, and Continental Eurasia.
‘At this stage, it is simply too early to make any predictions as the final outcome will depend on the mix of these drivers and how they influence each other.’
Britons have been told to brace for a cold and stormy winter as warm ocean temperatures in the Pacific send ‘waves’ rippling through the atmosphere.
These waves push the world’s most powerful weather systems – including the jet stream – off their usual course, wreaking havoc on Britain’s winter weather.
This winter, experts predict the jet stream will send storms towards the UK along powerful currents of fast–moving winds.
While it is still too early to say when these storms will occur, the latest weather predictions agree that bad weather is increasingly likely.
